Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced
FBS Independents11-2#12 (+18.76)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
78· BRating
65· CPer play
49· CConsistency
83· BBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
97· A+Per play
78· BConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.186
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.046
Defensive EPA/play
-0.194
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
42.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.240
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.084
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.61
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.47
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.26
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#12
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#11
recruiting 1 spots higher
47 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
99th
Offensive EPA/play
66th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
57th
Explosiveness
84th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
83th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA4032Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: pass defense, run defense, offensive success rate3973App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3934App State2018OA +0.015 / +0.175similar: run defense, defensive EPA, pass defense3805App State2019OA +0.054 / +0.099similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, havoc rate376

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Louisville35-17W-4.0W55U
3vs New Mexico66-14W-34.5W64O
4@ Georgia17-23L+15.5W58.5U
5vs Virginia35-20W-10.5W46.5O
6vs Bowling Green52-0W-45.5W64.5U
7vs USC30-27W-10.5L60U
9@ Michigan14-45L-1.5L46.5O
10vs Virginia Tech21-20W-17.0L59U
11@ Duke38-7W-7.5W50U
12vs Navy52-20W-7.0W56O
13vs Boston College40-7W-21.0W65.5U
14@ Stanford45-24W-17.5W45.5O
18@ Iowa State33-9W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3
75.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS8-3
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off43thRed Zone Off78th3rd Down Off36thPass Def90thRush Def93thRed Zone Def62th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04866th-0.15195th
Red Zone+0.13878th-0.05562th
Third Down-0.03136th-0.22495th
No Garbage Time+0.05267th-0.18296th
First Half+0.06669th-0.13487th
Second Half+0.03055th-0.16896th
Early Downs+0.05874th-0.08181th
Passing Downs+0.16484th-0.18190th
Standard Downs-0.01143th-0.13293th
Goal to Go+0.14275th-0.27980th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
21.8%
TO Margin
+1.3
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
431.2
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
25.9%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points478233
Points / Game36.817.9
First Downs
Total272235
Rushing114118
Passing135102
Penalty2315
Rushing
Attempts473517
Yards2,3271,972
Yards / Carry4.93.8
Yards / Game179.0151.7
Touchdowns2012
Passing
Attempts416374
Completions253203
Completion %60.8%54.3%
Yards3,2782,191
Yards / Attempt7.95.9
Touchdowns3713
Interceptions69
Passer Rating153.47110.15
Total Offense
Plays889891
Yards5,6054,163
Yards / Play6.34.7
Yards / Game431.2320.2
Punt Returns
Returns2518
Yards21170
Average8.43.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2135
Yards403626
Average19.217.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6380
Yards2,4853,419
Average39.442.7
Interception Returns
Returns96
Yards8723
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1033
Lost519
Penalties
Penalties8462
Yards645515
Yards / Game49.639.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:4631:14
Third Downs
Attempts185197
Conversions7464
Conversion %40.0%32.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2522
Conversions1710
Conversion %68.0%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips5530
Scores (TD + FG)5129
Score %92.7%96.7%
Touchdowns4217
TD %76.4%56.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2019
Made1717
Pct85.0%89.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6126
Made6126
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →