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TROY
Troy
TrojansBalancedSun Belt Conference11-3#19 (+6.79)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
86· BOverall
Offense
59· CRating
58· CPer play
54· CConsistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
94· APer play
89· BConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
92· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.020
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.169
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.031
Defensive EPA/play
-0.164
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.8%
Def Success Rate
42.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.195
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.049
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.37
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#35
model 16 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 57 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense39th
Opp-adjusted defense96th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate54th
Explosiveness76th
Defensive havoc93th
Points per drive63th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Notre Dame2021OA +0.071 / +0.132similar: run defense, offensive success rate, offensive EPA4662James Madison2024OA -0.011 / +0.047similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4373Penn State2022OA +0.105 / +0.152similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, turnover rate4124Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate4045Ohio2023OA -0.033 / +0.109similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate401
2023 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Stephen F. Austin | 48-30 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Kansas State | 13-42 | L | +15.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 3 | vs James Madison | 14-16 | L | -3.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Western Kentucky | 27-24 | W | -3.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Georgia State | 28-7 | W | +0.8 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Arkansas State | 37-3 | W | -16.5 | W | 52 | U |
| 7 | @ Army | 19-0 | W | -4.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Texas State | 31-13 | W | -5.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
| 10 | vs South Alabama | 28-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ UL Monroe | 45-14 | W | -21.5 | W | 45.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Louisiana | 31-24 | W | -16.0 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Southern Miss | 35-17 | W | -16.5 | W | 47.5 | O |
| 14 | vs App State | 49-23 | W | -5.0 | W | 53.25 | O |
| 17 | @ Duke | 10-17 | L | -6.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.041 | 63th | -0.140 | 94th |
| Red Zone | +0.063 | 64th | -0.175 | 87th |
| Third Down | +0.253 | 63th | -0.060 | 93th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.031 | 58th | -0.159 | 94th |
| First Half | -0.035 | 32th | -0.113 | 90th |
| Second Half | +0.121 | 88th | -0.171 | 96th |
| Early Downs | +0.070 | 89th | -0.079 | 72th |
| Passing Downs | +0.044 | 44th | -0.146 | 94th |
| Standard Downs | +0.039 | 71th | -0.135 | 90th |
| Goal to Go | -0.019 | 43th | -0.100 | 65th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.5%Rush 51.5%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
16.6
Yards/Game
419.4
Pts/Drive
2.37
3rd Down%
40.2%
3&Out%
17.5%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 14 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Troy | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 415 | 240 |
| Points / Game | 29.6 | 17.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 298 | 247 |
| Rushing | 107 | 98 |
| Passing | 159 | 129 |
| Penalty | 32 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 486 | 472 |
| Yards | 2,148 | 1,493 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.4 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 153.4 | 106.6 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 13 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 457 | 435 |
| Completions | 280 | 272 |
| Completion % | 61.3% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 3,724 | 2,821 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 6.5 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 10 |
| Passer Rating | 148.03 | 122.27 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 943 | 907 |
| Yards | 5,872 | 4,314 |
| Yards / Play | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 419.4 | 308.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 17 | 11 |
| Yards | 86 | 62 |
| Average | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 25 |
| Yards | 413 | 521 |
| Average | 19.7 | 20.8 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 53 | 70 |
| Yards | 2,209 | 2,757 |
| Average | 41.7 | 39.4 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 6 |
| Yards | 63 | 24 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 23 |
| Lost | 12 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 74 |
| Yards | 655 | 613 |
| Yards / Game | 46.8 | 43.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:50 | 28:52 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 191 |
| Conversions | 76 | 62 |
| Conversion % | 40.2% | 32.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 30 | 30 |
| Conversions | 14 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 46.7% | 33.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 48 | 34 |
| Score % | 92.3% | 82.9% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 21 |
| TD % | 63.5% | 51.2% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 19 |
| Made | 19 | 17 |
| Pct | 79.2% | 89.5% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 25 |
| Made | 50 | 25 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 3 |
| Made | 1 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.