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OHIO
Ohio
BobcatsBalancedMid-American Conference10-3#65 (+0.75)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
52· COverall
Offense
40· CRating
53· CPer play
81· BConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
82· BRating
98· A+Per play
94· AConsistency
Situational
35· DRed-zone O
78· BRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.033
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.109
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.017
Defensive EPA/play
-0.211
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
40.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.228
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.116
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.18
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.12
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#65
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#28
market 37 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
model 11 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Ohio ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense31th
Opp-adjusted defense90th
Offensive EPA/play53th
Defensive EPA/play99th
Offensive success rate78th
Explosiveness43th
Defensive havoc96th
Points per drive51th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Illinois2022OA -0.001 / +0.183similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA4172Troy2023OA -0.020 / +0.169similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3993Minnesota2024OA +0.001 / +0.055similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, pass defense3814Auburn2019OA -0.022 / +0.217similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, passing offense3795Iowa2018OA +0.039 / +0.179similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense375
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ San Diego State | 13-20 | L | +2.3 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 1 | vs LIU | 27-10 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | @ Florida Atlantic | 17-10 | W | +3.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Iowa State | 10-7 | W | +3.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 4 | @ Bowling Green | 38-7 | W | -13.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Kent State | 42-17 | W | -26.0 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Northern Illinois | 13-23 | L | -6.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Western Michigan | 20-17 | W | -17.0 | L | 52.5 | U |
| 9 | vs Miami (OH) | 16-30 | L | -7.0 | L | 39 | O |
| 11 | @ Buffalo | 20-10 | W | -11.0 | W | 46.5 | O |
| 12 | vs Central Michigan | 34-20 | W | -14.0 | L | 41 | U |
| 13 | @ Akron | 25-14 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 16 | vs Georgia Southern | 41-21 | W | +2.5 | W | 48.75 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.007 | 44th | -0.169 | 97th |
| Red Zone | -0.060 | 36th | -0.138 | 79th |
| Third Down | +0.078 | 25th | -0.049 | 92th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.003 | 45th | -0.197 | 99th |
| First Half | -0.057 | 27th | -0.277 | 100th |
| Second Half | +0.043 | 67th | -0.059 | 75th |
| Early Downs | -0.014 | 59th | -0.247 | 99th |
| Passing Downs | +0.025 | 40th | -0.059 | 88th |
| Standard Downs | -0.021 | 48th | -0.239 | 99th |
| Goal to Go | -0.087 | 31th | +0.422 | 6th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.1%Rush 55.9%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
24.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
14.4
Yards/Game
348.0
Pts/Drive
2.18
3rd Down%
45.7%
3&Out%
17.1%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Ohio vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Ohio | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 316 | 206 |
| Points / Game | 24.3 | 15.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 272 | 186 |
| Rushing | 114 | 67 |
| Passing | 127 | 97 |
| Penalty | 31 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 485 | 366 |
| Yards | 1,877 | 1,185 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Yards / Game | 144.4 | 91.2 |
| Touchdowns | 18 | 9 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 383 | 371 |
| Completions | 239 | 233 |
| Completion % | 62.4% | 62.8% |
| Yards | 2,647 | 2,376 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 6.4 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 14 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 129.54 | 120.97 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 868 | 737 |
| Yards | 4,524 | 3,561 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Yards / Game | 348.0 | 273.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 11 |
| Yards | 41 | 169 |
| Average | 2.7 | 15.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 46 |
| Yards | 273 | 816 |
| Average | 18.2 | 17.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 48 | 52 |
| Yards | 1,936 | 2,130 |
| Average | 40.3 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 9 |
| Yards | 137 | 193 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 15 |
| Lost | 4 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 82 |
| Yards | 673 | 787 |
| Yards / Game | 51.8 | 60.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:25 | 26:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 184 | 161 |
| Conversions | 84 | 49 |
| Conversion % | 45.7% | 30.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 31 |
| Conversions | 8 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 48.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 52 | 32 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 24 |
| Score % | 84.6% | 75.0% |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 15 |
| TD % | 53.8% | 46.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 28 | 20 |
| Made | 19 | 13 |
| Pct | 67.9% | 65.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 36 | 24 |
| Made | 35 | 23 |
| Pct | 97.2% | 95.8% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.