Fourth Down Data
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ILL

Illinois

Fighting IlliniBalanced
Big Ten Conference8-5#27 (+5.16)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
43· CRating
34· DPer play
58· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
97· A+Rating
97· A+Per play
97· A+Consistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
98· A+Red-zone D
11· F3rd down O
95· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.183
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.064
Defensive EPA/play
-0.251
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.8%
Def Success Rate
37.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.187
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.015
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.31
own return game
Return Defense
+0.52
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#50
model 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 37 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
97th
Offensive EPA/play
35th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
48th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
35th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio2023OA -0.033 / +0.109similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA4172Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3973Marshall2022OA -0.104 / +0.202similar: pass defense, run defense, defensive EPA3704Virginia Tech2017OA -0.009 / +0.191similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3665Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: run defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate365

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Wyoming38-6W-14.0W43O
1@ Indiana20-23L----
2vs Virginia24-3W-4.0W57.5U
4vs Chattanooga31-0W----
5@ Wisconsin34-10W+7.0W43.5O
6vs Iowa9-6W-3.5L36.5U
7vs Minnesota26-14W+6.5W39O
9@ Nebraska26-9W-7.5W50.5U
10vs Michigan State15-23L-16.0L41.5U
11vs Purdue24-31L-6.5L44.5O
12@ Michigan17-19L+18.0W42U
13@ Northwestern41-3W-14.0W38O
18vs Mississippi State10-19L+3.0L45.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-5
61.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
8-5
61.5%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-3
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off8thRush Off50thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off11thPass Def99thRush Def97thRed Zone Def99th3rd Down Def96th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07231th-0.25799th
Red Zone-0.23813th-0.47199th
Third Down-0.16511th-0.31396th
No Garbage Time-0.05837th-0.25798th
First Half-0.03043th-0.23297th
Second Half-0.11819th-0.28299th
Early Downs-0.01151th-0.21497th
Passing Downs-0.1978th-0.34399th
Standard Downs-0.01050th-0.19997th
Goal to Go-0.30514th-0.67399th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
15.8
Havoc Rate
24.5%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
378.1
Pts/Drive
1.88
3rd Down%
38.2%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatIllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points315166
Points / Game24.212.8
First Downs
Total275198
Rushing11767
Passing135105
Penalty2326
Rushing
Attempts543395
Yards2,1621,297
Yards / Carry4.03.3
Yards / Game166.399.8
Touchdowns186
Passing
Attempts395415
Completions275213
Completion %69.6%51.3%
Yards2,7532,259
Yards / Attempt7.05.4
Touchdowns159
Interceptions524
Passer Rating138.1792.64
Total Offense
Plays938810
Yards4,9153,556
Yards / Play5.24.4
Yards / Game378.1273.5
Punt Returns
Returns238
Yards14761
Average6.47.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1826
Yards315506
Average17.519.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6176
Yards2,4403,163
Average40.041.6
Interception Returns
Returns245
Yards2740
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1915
Lost127
Penalties
Penalties8464
Yards783605
Yards / Game60.246.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4227:18
Third Downs
Attempts186183
Conversions7155
Conversion %38.2%30.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2520
Conversions129
Conversion %48.0%45.0%
Red Zone
Trips5131
Scores (TD + FG)4123
Score %80.4%74.2%
Touchdowns2411
TD %47.1%35.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2624
Made2119
Pct80.8%79.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3515
Made3413
Pct97.1%86.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →