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CLEM
Clemson
TigersBalancedAtlantic Coast Conference9-4#35 (+4.04)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
74· BOverall
Offense
36· DRating
24· DPer play
59· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
94· ARating
98· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
61· CRed-zone D
26· D3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.214
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.058
Defensive EPA/play
-0.214
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.3%
Def Success Rate
39.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.156
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.89
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.52
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#35
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 15 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#16
market 19 higher
Recruiting Rank
#6
recruiting 29 spots higher
61 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Clemson ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense25th
Opp-adjusted defense99th
Offensive EPA/play24th
Defensive EPA/play99th
Offensive success rate61th
Explosiveness33th
Defensive havoc98th
Points per drive39th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Northwestern2017OA -0.036 / +0.113similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate4032Illinois2022OA -0.001 / +0.183similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, defensive success rate3973Washington State2017OA -0.126 / +0.165similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3914Northwestern2020OA -0.022 / +0.067similar: pass defense, turnover rate, takeaway rate3855Toledo2025OA -0.058 / +0.113similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, pass defense383
2023 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Duke | 7-28 | L | -13.0 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Charleston Southern | 66-17 | W | -48.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Florida Atlantic | 48-14 | W | -24.5 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Florida State | 24-31 | L | +2.3 | L | 55 | P |
| 5 | @ Syracuse | 31-14 | W | -6.5 | W | 53 | U |
| 6 | vs Wake Forest | 17-12 | W | -21.0 | L | 51.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Miami | 20-28 | L | -3.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 9 | @ NC State | 17-24 | L | -10.0 | L | 43.75 | U |
| 10 | vs Notre Dame | 31-23 | W | +3.0 | W | 45 | O |
| 11 | vs Georgia Tech | 42-21 | W | -14.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 12 | vs North Carolina | 31-20 | W | -6.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 13 | @ South Carolina | 16-7 | W | -7.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 18 | @ Kentucky | 38-35 | W | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
5-7-1
41.7%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS6-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.046 | 27th | -0.183 | 99th |
| Red Zone | -0.079 | 31th | -0.064 | 61th |
| Third Down | +0.082 | 27th | +0.098 | 70th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.060 | 24th | -0.210 | 99th |
| First Half | -0.010 | 41th | -0.249 | 99th |
| Second Half | -0.086 | 21th | -0.120 | 89th |
| Early Downs | -0.021 | 53th | -0.209 | 96th |
| Passing Downs | -0.060 | 23th | -0.242 | 100th |
| Standard Downs | -0.039 | 39th | -0.139 | 93th |
| Goal to Go | -0.321 | 7th | -0.059 | 59th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.5%Rush 52.5%
Havoc/Game
16.7
Havoc Rate
26.3%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.8
Yards/Game
402.7
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
40.4%
3&Out%
18.0%
Team Statistics
2023 season totals across 13 games — Clemson vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Clemson | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 388 | 274 |
| Points / Game | 29.8 | 21.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 304 | 185 |
| Rushing | 134 | 73 |
| Passing | 148 | 92 |
| Penalty | 22 | 20 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 524 | 396 |
| Yards | 2,266 | 1,490 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Yards / Game | 174.3 | 114.6 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 17 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 474 | 401 |
| Completions | 302 | 212 |
| Completion % | 63.7% | 52.9% |
| Yards | 2,969 | 2,252 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.3 | 5.6 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 13 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 16 |
| Passer Rating | 126.45 | 102.76 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 998 | 797 |
| Yards | 5,235 | 3,742 |
| Yards / Play | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 402.7 | 287.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 19 |
| Yards | 182 | 103 |
| Average | 7.9 | 5.4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 7 |
| Yards | 287 | 267 |
| Average | 23.9 | 38.1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 84 |
| Yards | 2,719 | 3,639 |
| Average | 43.2 | 43.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 9 |
| Yards | 244 | 115 |
| Touchdowns | 4 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 22 | 19 |
| Lost | 13 | 12 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 64 | 71 |
| Yards | 554 | 621 |
| Yards / Game | 42.6 | 47.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:19 | 26:41 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 198 | 187 |
| Conversions | 80 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 40.4% | 32.1% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 22 |
| Conversions | 14 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 51.9% | 45.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 60 | 29 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 44 | 24 |
| Score % | 73.3% | 82.8% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 17 |
| TD % | 56.7% | 58.6% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 15 |
| Made | 15 | 12 |
| Pct | 62.5% | 80.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 46 | 30 |
| Made | 45 | 30 |
| Pct | 97.8% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.