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WSU
Washington State
CougarsPass-HeavyPac-12 Conference9-4#56 (+3.19)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
58· COverall
Offense
37· DRating
25· DPer play
61· CConsistency
27· DBig plays
Defense
78· BRating
94· APer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
52· CRed-zone O
42· CRed-zone D
54· C3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.126
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.165
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.087
Defensive EPA/play
-0.189
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.9%
Def Success Rate
42.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.103
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.012
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-1.54
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-1.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#56
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#57
model 1 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Washington State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense10th
Opp-adjusted defense92th
Offensive EPA/play26th
Defensive EPA/play95th
Offensive success rate59th
Explosiveness27th
Defensive havoc86th
Points per drive53th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Middle Tennessee2021OA -0.066 / +0.065similar: havoc rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3922Clemson2023OA -0.056 / +0.214similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3913Buffalo2022OA -0.062 / +0.019similar: passing offense, run defense, havoc rate3714Southern Miss2018OA -0.135 / +0.134similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3655Michigan State2017OA +0.020 / +0.139similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA352
2017 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Montana State | 31-0 | W | +2.5 | L | 47 | O |
| 2 | vs Boise State | 47-44 | W | -7.5 | L | 57.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Oregon State | 52-23 | W | -17.5 | W | 65 | O |
| 4 | vs Nevada | 45-7 | W | -28.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 5 | vs USC | 30-27 | W | +4.5 | W | 59 | U |
| 6 | @ Oregon | 33-10 | W | -1.5 | W | 60.5 | U |
| 7 | @ California | 3-37 | L | -16.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 8 | vs Colorado | 28-0 | W | -9.0 | W | 52 | U |
| 9 | @ Arizona | 37-58 | L | - | - | 63 | O |
| 10 | vs Stanford | 24-21 | W | +1.5 | W | 55.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Utah | 33-25 | W | -1.0 | W | 50 | O |
| 13 | @ Washington | 14-41 | L | +9.5 | L | 50 | O |
| 18 | @ Michigan State | 17-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-4
63.6%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
8-4
66.7%
Home ATS5-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.088 | 23th | -0.194 | 95th |
| Red Zone | +0.013 | 53th | +0.048 | 42th |
| Third Down | +0.018 | 55th | -0.388 | 95th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.119 | 17th | -0.172 | 90th |
| First Half | -0.082 | 27th | -0.181 | 88th |
| Second Half | -0.092 | 28th | -0.209 | 95th |
| Early Downs | -0.039 | 48th | -0.161 | 91th |
| Passing Downs | -0.138 | 19th | -0.269 | 95th |
| Standard Downs | -0.063 | 38th | -0.148 | 85th |
| Goal to Go | +0.026 | 58th | -0.072 | 53th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 70.2%Rush 29.8%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
22.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
434.8
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
22.2%
Team Statistics
2017 season totals across 13 games — Washington State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Washington State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 394 | 335 |
| Points / Game | 30.3 | 25.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 303 | 213 |
| Rushing | 62 | 102 |
| Passing | 219 | 93 |
| Penalty | 22 | 18 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 303 | 469 |
| Yards | 884 | 1,981 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.9 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 68.0 | 152.4 |
| Touchdowns | 8 | 26 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 713 | 351 |
| Completions | 487 | 190 |
| Completion % | 68.3% | 54.1% |
| Yards | 4,769 | 2,222 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.7 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 37 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 20 | 15 |
| Passer Rating | 136.00 | 109.10 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,016 | 820 |
| Yards | 5,653 | 4,203 |
| Yards / Play | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| Yards / Game | 434.8 | 323.3 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 22 | 18 |
| Yards | 91 | 52 |
| Average | 4.1 | 2.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 25 | 44 |
| Yards | 449 | 1,039 |
| Average | 18.0 | 23.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 63 | 80 |
| Yards | 2,413 | 3,347 |
| Average | 38.3 | 41.8 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 15 | 20 |
| Yards | 130 | 257 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 21 | 20 |
| Lost | 11 | 13 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 73 | 75 |
| Yards | 666 | 659 |
| Yards / Game | 51.2 | 50.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:25 | 27:35 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 202 | 172 |
| Conversions | 86 | 49 |
| Conversion % | 42.6% | 28.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 19 |
| Conversions | 10 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 55.6% | 42.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 47 | 36 |
| Score % | 87.0% | 87.8% |
| Touchdowns | 33 | 26 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 63.4% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 24 | 17 |
| Made | 20 | 15 |
| Pct | 83.3% | 88.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 47 | 40 |
| Made | 46 | 40 |
| Pct | 97.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.