Fourth Down Data
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USM

Southern Miss

Golden EaglesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference6-5#59 (+1.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
20· DRating
10· FPer play
20· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
97· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
50· CRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
73· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.135
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.134
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.137
Defensive EPA/play
-0.206
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.7%
Def Success Rate
37.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.070
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.038
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#59
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 18 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Southern Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
11th
Defensive EPA/play
98th
Offensive success rate
24th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1California2018OA -0.154 / +0.144similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, pass defense3672Washington State2017OA -0.126 / +0.165similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense3653Michigan State2019OA -0.016 / +0.106similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3604TCU2018OA -0.079 / +0.129similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3595Texas State2022OA -0.153 / +0.039similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, run defense359

2018 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Jackson State55-7W-33.0W51O
2vs UL Monroe20-21L-5.0L67.5U
4vs Rice40-22W-14.0W55.5O
5@ Auburn13-24L+27.0W51U
7@ North Texas7-30L+7.0L52.5U
8vs UTSA27-17W-16.0L44P
9@ Charlotte17-20L-6.5L45U
10vs Marshall26-24W+3.0W47.5O
11@ UAB23-26L+13.5W45O
12vs Louisiana Tech21-20W-2.5L45.5U
13@ UTEP39-7W-14.0W45O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
6-5
54.5%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-4
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off5thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off33thPass Def98thRush Def90thRed Zone Def51th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.12711th-0.19598th
Red Zone-0.10923th+0.00551th
Third Down-0.00933th-0.05873th
No Garbage Time-0.14210th-0.22198th
First Half-0.14911th-0.28798th
Second Half-0.10312th-0.10685th
Early Downs-0.1825th-0.222100th
Passing Downs-0.03636th-0.28798th
Standard Downs-0.1835th-0.13090th
Goal to Go-0.13819th+0.23425th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.4%Rush 50.6%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.9%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
13.2
Yards/Game
367.6
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
35.9%
3&Out%
20.5%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 11 games — Southern Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSouthern MissOpponents
Scoring
Points288218
Points / Game26.219.8
First Downs
Total229161
Rushing7759
Passing13289
Penalty2013
Rushing
Attempts399337
Yards1,2391,130
Yards / Carry3.13.4
Yards / Game112.6102.7
Touchdowns1110
Passing
Attempts389335
Completions269179
Completion %69.2%53.4%
Yards2,8051,932
Yards / Attempt7.25.8
Touchdowns1913
Interceptions1314
Passer Rating139.16106.32
Total Offense
Plays788672
Yards4,0443,062
Yards / Play5.14.6
Yards / Game367.6278.4
Punt Returns
Returns208
Yards22925
Average11.43.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2621
Yards527405
Average20.319.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5071
Yards1,8932,964
Average37.941.7
Interception Returns
Returns1413
Yards276197
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles2012
Lost108
Penalties
Penalties6056
Yards501557
Yards / Game45.550.6
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4028:31
Third Downs
Attempts153154
Conversions5553
Conversion %35.9%34.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts187
Conversions85
Conversion %44.4%71.4%
Red Zone
Trips3431
Scores (TD + FG)3124
Score %91.2%77.4%
Touchdowns2016
TD %58.8%51.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2217
Made1810
Pct81.8%58.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3325
Made3024
Pct90.9%96.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →