Fourth Down Data
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OU

Oklahoma

SoonersRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference1-0#10 (+10.41)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
83· BRating
62· CPer play
69· CConsistency
12· FBig plays
Defense
86· BRating
39· DPer play
64· CConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
84· BRed-zone D
30· D3rd down O
94· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.139
Defensive EPA/play
-0.019
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.3%
Def Success Rate
33.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
16.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
17.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.158
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.08
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.14
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+1.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 16 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Oklahoma ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
55th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
50th
Explosiveness
12th
Defensive havoc
91th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2026OA +0.030 / +0.032similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate4042Miami (OH)2021OA -0.032 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3333Bowling Green2024OA +0.012 / +0.012similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3174Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense3155Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate309

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UTEP51-0W-41.5W51.5U
2@ Michigan------
3vs New Mexico------
4@ Georgia------
6vs Texas------
7vs Kentucky------
8@ Mississippi State------
9vs South Carolina------
10@ Florida------
11vs Ole Miss------
12vs Texas A&M------
13@ Missouri------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off28thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off30thPass Def92thRush Def53thRed Zone Def85th3rd Down Def95th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05728th-0.27180th
Red Zone-0.45713th-0.68485th
Third Down-0.17730th-0.87895th
No Garbage Time+0.16769th-0.14053th
First Half+0.13962th-0.01942th
Second Half-0.28112th-0.54296th
Early Downs-0.14322th-0.12858th
Passing Downs+0.07154th-0.53392th
Standard Downs-0.10128th-0.11453th
Goal to Go-0.36917th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 32.8%Rush 67.2%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
33.3%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
5.0
Yards/Game
401.0
Pts/Drive
5.00
3rd Down%
54.5%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Oklahoma vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOklahomaOpponents
Scoring
Points510
Points / Game51.00.0
First Downs
Total1810
Rushing84
Passing105
Penalty01
Rushing
Attempts3938
Yards170112
Yards / Carry4.42.9
Yards / Game170.0112.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts1918
Completions1210
Completion %63.2%55.6%
Yards23186
Yards / Attempt12.24.8
Touchdowns30
Interceptions00
Passer Rating217.3995.69
Total Offense
Plays5856
Yards401198
Yards / Play6.93.5
Yards / Game401.0198.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards1157
Average57.57.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards240
Average24.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts25
Yards86197
Average43.039.4
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles12
Lost12
Penalties
Penalties34
Yards3035
Yards / Game30.035.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3229:28
Third Downs
Attempts1113
Conversions62
Conversion %54.5%15.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts02
Conversions01
Conversion %—50.0%
Red Zone
Trips52
Scores (TD + FG)50
Score %100.0%0.0%
Touchdowns20
TD %40.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts33
Made30
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts60
Made60
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →