Fourth Down Data
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MISS

Ole Miss

RebelsBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#108 (-5.54)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall
Offense
52· CRating
51· CPer play
46· CConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
26· DPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
91· A-Red-zone O
56· CRed-zone D
17· D3rd down O
30· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.002
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.072
Defensive EPA/play
+0.062
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.4%
Def Success Rate
42.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.010
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.15

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.20
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.21
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Ole Miss ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
48th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
52th
Defensive EPA/play
26th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
56th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2017OA +0.130 / +0.011similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, takeaway rate3802Hawai'i2024OA -0.018 / -0.015similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, passing offense3783West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, pass defense3684Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3675North Carolina2024OA -0.010 / -0.021similar: run defense, offensive success rate, defensive success rate365

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisville41-38W-6.5L55O
2vs Charlotte------
3vs LSU------
4@ Florida------
6@ Vanderbilt------
7vs Missouri------
8@ Texas------
9vs Auburn------
10vs Georgia------
11@ Oklahoma------
12vs Wofford------
13vs Mississippi State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off45thRed Zone Off92th3rd Down Off18thPass Def61thRush Def9thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def31th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07258th+0.06226th
Red Zone+0.63792th-0.19157th
Third Down-0.33018th+0.15731th
No Garbage Time+0.07255th+0.06226th
First Half-0.27911th-0.50491th
Second Half+0.44295th+0.5641th
Early Downs+0.07261th+0.08119th
Passing Downs+0.20161th-0.16561th
Standard Downs+0.01845th+0.2029th
Goal to Go+0.34352th-0.19170th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.4%Rush 52.6%
Havoc/Game
13.0
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
488.0
Pts/Drive
3.15
3rd Down%
37.5%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Ole Miss vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOle MissOpponents
Scoring
Points4138
Points / Game41.038.0
First Downs
Total2420
Rushing1210
Passing109
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts4139
Yards152162
Yards / Carry3.74.2
Yards / Game152.0162.0
Touchdowns22
Passing
Attempts3729
Completions2118
Completion %56.8%62.1%
Yards336307
Yards / Attempt9.110.6
Touchdowns32
Interceptions10
Passer Rating154.39173.75
Total Offense
Plays7868
Yards488469
Yards / Play6.36.9
Yards / Game488.0469.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards73
Average3.53.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns13
Yards951
Average9.017.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts35
Yards130198
Average43.339.6
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties69
Yards6082
Yards / Game60.082.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:0230:58
Third Downs
Attempts1616
Conversions67
Conversion %37.5%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions10
Conversion %50.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips22
Scores (TD + FG)22
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns21
TD %100.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts33
Made23
Pct66.7%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts53
Made53
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →