Fourth Down Data
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TROY

Troy

TrojansBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-7#107 (-9.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

21· DOverall
Offense
70· BRating
93· APer play
90· A-Consistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
2· FRating
17· DPer play
25· DConsistency
Situational
57· CRed-zone O
55· CRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
4· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.097
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.123
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.160
Defensive EPA/play
+0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
47.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.064
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.124
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.90

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.68
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.36
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.19
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#107
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 32 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Troy ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
94th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
36th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, run defense4682SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4503Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4354SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4005North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense398

2019 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Campbell43-14W-35.5L49O
3vs Southern Miss42-47L-3.0L49O
4@ Akron35-7W-18.5W57U
5vs Arkansas State43-50L-7.0L59.5O
6@ Missouri10-42L+25.5L65U
8vs South Alabama37-13W-17.5W55.5U
9@ Georgia State33-52L-1.0L67O
10@ Coastal Carolina35-36L-2.0L60.5O
11vs Georgia Southern49-28W+2.0W57O
12@ Texas State63-27W-7.0W64.5O
13@ Louisiana3-53L+13.0L74.5U
14vs App State13-48L+11.5L64U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS1-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off70thRush Off89thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off87thPass Def28thRush Def25thRed Zone Def56th3rd Down Def4th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11090th+0.06725th
Red Zone+0.00557th-0.03056th
Third Down+0.21987th+0.3404th
No Garbage Time+0.15594th+0.09616th
First Half+0.11183th+0.10418th
Second Half+0.10984th+0.02737th
Early Downs+0.08284th+0.02838th
Passing Downs+0.09870th+0.09228th
Standard Downs+0.11689th+0.05425th
Goal to Go+0.12272th-0.23674th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.0%Rush 45.0%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
17.3%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
456.3
Pts/Drive
2.90
3rd Down%
46.9%
3&Out%
16.1%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 12 games — Troy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTroyOpponents
Scoring
Points406417
Points / Game33.834.8
First Downs
Total295265
Rushing101106
Passing166139
Penalty2820
Rushing
Attempts402446
Yards1,7171,894
Yards / Carry4.34.2
Yards / Game143.1157.8
Touchdowns1924
Passing
Attempts491394
Completions316262
Completion %64.4%66.5%
Yards3,7583,316
Yards / Attempt7.78.4
Touchdowns3026
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating144.33153.39
Total Offense
Plays893840
Yards5,4755,210
Yards / Play6.16.2
Yards / Game456.3434.2
Punt Returns
Returns98
Yards1647
Average1.85.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4334
Yards929607
Average21.617.9
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts4551
Yards1,8182,147
Average40.442.1
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards130136
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1611
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties6490
Yards597813
Yards / Game49.867.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:3531:25
Third Downs
Attempts177175
Conversions8381
Conversion %46.9%46.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2217
Conversions139
Conversion %59.1%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips5546
Scores (TD + FG)4939
Score %89.1%84.8%
Touchdowns3527
TD %63.6%58.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1819
Made1414
Pct77.8%73.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4850
Made4849
Pct100.0%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts43
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →