Fourth Down Data
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UVA

Virginia

CavaliersPass-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference6-6#88 (-2.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

34· DOverall
Offense
89· BRating
95· APer play
95· AConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
17· DRating
4· FPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
83· BRed-zone D
91· A-3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.166
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.158
Defensive EPA/play
+0.173
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
50.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.015
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.159
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.41
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-1.41
own return game
Return Defense
-0.80
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#73
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#49
recruiting 39 spots higher
5 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4352SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA4123UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4064North Texas2017OA -0.005 / -0.142similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, passing offense4025North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA402

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs William & Mary43-0W----
2vs Illinois42-14W-11.0W54.5O
3@ North Carolina39-59L+3.5L83O
4vs Wake Forest17-37L+4.5W62.5U
5@ Miami30-28W----
6@ Louisville34-33W+2.5W69U
7vs Duke48-0W-11.0W69.5U
8vs Georgia Tech48-40W-6.8W63O
9@ BYU49-66L+2.5L64O
11vs Notre Dame3-28L+5.5L64.5U
12@ Pittsburgh38-48L+14.5W66O
13vs Virginia Tech24-29L-7.0L62.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5
54.5%
O/U Record
5-6
45.5%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off79thRed Zone Off57th3rd Down Off92thPass Def3thRush Def17thRed Zone Def84th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14096th+0.1298th
Red Zone+0.00457th-0.19484th
Third Down+0.36092th+0.21723th
No Garbage Time+0.15596th+0.1735th
First Half+0.25699th+0.13510th
Second Half+0.01252th+0.1249th
Early Downs+0.06477th+0.06018th
Passing Downs+0.25698th+0.2513th
Standard Downs+0.08479th+0.07517th
Goal to Go+0.17683th-0.33483th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 62.0%Rush 38.0%
Havoc/Game
10.8
Havoc Rate
14.6%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
19.3
Yards/Game
516.3
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
45.9%
3&Out%
13.6%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatVirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points415382
Points / Game34.631.8
First Downs
Total319281
Rushing83120
Passing213132
Penalty2329
Rushing
Attempts339468
Yards1,4852,710
Yards / Carry4.45.8
Yards / Game123.8225.8
Touchdowns2121
Passing
Attempts553376
Completions350225
Completion %63.3%59.8%
Yards4,7112,882
Yards / Attempt8.57.7
Touchdowns3126
Interceptions128
Passer Rating149.01142.79
Total Offense
Plays892844
Yards6,1965,592
Yards / Play6.96.6
Yards / Game516.3466.0
Punt Returns
Returns1816
Yards94157
Average5.29.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1413
Yards206286
Average14.722.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4148
Yards1,8122,035
Average44.242.4
Interception Returns
Returns812
Yards12696
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1911
Lost66
Penalties
Penalties7778
Yards681711
Yards / Game56.859.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3929:17
Third Downs
Attempts159161
Conversions7366
Conversion %45.9%41.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1919
Conversions812
Conversion %42.1%63.2%
Red Zone
Trips6051
Scores (TD + FG)5139
Score %85.0%76.5%
Touchdowns3826
TD %63.3%51.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1923
Made1515
Pct78.9%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5046
Made5045
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →