Fourth Down Data
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ULM

UL Monroe

WarhawksBalanced
Sun Belt Conference4-8#110 (-13.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

18· DOverall
Offense
58· CRating
84· BPer play
79· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
2· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
61· CRed-zone O
6· FRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.247
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.094
Defensive EPA/play
+0.213
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
53.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.119
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.178
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.31
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#110
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 35 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UL Monroe ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
85th
Defensive EPA/play
2th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
20th
Points per drive
75th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rutgers2025OA +0.072 / -0.178similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense4942North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4763SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate4194North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA4085Coastal Carolina2018OA +0.096 / -0.172similar: passing offense, havoc rate, defensive EPA407

2017 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Memphis29-37L+27.5W61.5O
3vs Southern Miss17-28L+7.5L55U
4@ Louisiana56-50W+4.0W60O
5vs Coastal Carolina51-43W-7.5W54O
6@ Texas State45-27W-6.0W55O
7vs Georgia State37-47L-3.5L57O
8@ South Alabama23-33L+3.5L55.5O
9@ Idaho23-31L+2.0L61.5U
10vs App State52-45W+8.0W62.5O
12@ Auburn14-42L+38.0W68U
13vs Arkansas State50-67L+8.5L69O
14@ Florida State10-42L+26.0L63U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
8-4
66.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-5
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off69thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off78thPass Def3thRush Def2thRed Zone Def6th3rd Down Def11th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10088th+0.2092th
Red Zone+0.04962th+0.2586th
Third Down+0.15278th+0.20211th
No Garbage Time+0.10386th+0.2062th
First Half+0.07982th+0.2752th
Second Half+0.12390th+0.1415th
Early Downs+0.03774th+0.1502th
Passing Downs+0.23094th+0.2873th
Standard Downs+0.03069th+0.1752th
Goal to Go-0.3598th+0.15623th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.8%Rush 53.2%
Havoc/Game
11.3
Havoc Rate
15.1%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
458.0
Pts/Drive
2.44
3rd Down%
43.5%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 12 games — UL Monroe vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUL MonroeOpponents
Scoring
Points407492
Points / Game33.941.0
First Downs
Total259301
Rushing100137
Passing143147
Penalty1617
Rushing
Attempts459499
Yards2,0442,793
Yards / Carry4.55.6
Yards / Game170.3232.8
Touchdowns2732
Passing
Attempts404381
Completions246236
Completion %60.9%61.9%
Yards3,4523,592
Yards / Attempt8.59.4
Touchdowns2232
Interceptions99
Passer Rating146.18164.13
Total Offense
Plays863880
Yards5,4966,385
Yards / Play6.47.3
Yards / Game458.0532.1
Punt Returns
Returns1419
Yards99148
Average7.17.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns5743
Yards1,4151,004
Average24.823.3
Touchdowns41
Punting
Punts5852
Yards2,4332,122
Average41.940.8
Interception Returns
Returns99
Yards82143
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles1912
Lost95
Penalties
Penalties6485
Yards531791
Yards / Game44.365.9
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4330:17
Third Downs
Attempts177150
Conversions7769
Conversion %43.5%46.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts239
Conversions135
Conversion %56.5%55.6%
Red Zone
Trips4851
Scores (TD + FG)4046
Score %83.3%90.2%
Touchdowns3240
TD %66.7%78.4%
Field Goals
Attempts1310
Made109
Pct76.9%90.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4761
Made4557
Pct95.7%93.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts56
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →