Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference4-6#114 (-7.08)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
62· CRating
86· BPer play
70· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
1· FRating
5· FPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
70· B3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.038
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.073
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.123
Defensive EPA/play
+0.194
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.8%
Def Success Rate
51.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.071
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.008
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.99
own return game
Return Defense
+0.47
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#78
market 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 76 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
5th
Offensive success rate
77th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
63th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: offensive EPA, run defense, defensive EPA4082Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, turnover rate3923West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3844Arizona2019OA -0.007 / -0.040similar: run defense, rushing offense, pass defense3775Cincinnati2025OA +0.189 / -0.095similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, rushing offense374

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Houston Christian57-31W----
3vs SMU35-65L+14.0L68O
5vs Southern Miss31-41L-1.5L71.5O
6vs Charlotte21-49L+3.0L69O
7@ Middle Tennessee52-35W+6.5W72O
12vs Rice27-17W-2.5W64U
13@ UTSA17-49L+1.0L65.5O
14vs Louisiana Tech31-42L-9.5L66O
15@ UTEP45-43W----
16vs App State28-56L+21.5L67.25O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-7
22.2%
O/U Record
7-2
77.8%
Straight Up
4-6
40.0%
Home ATS1-5
Away ATS1-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS1-5
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off88thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off70thPass Def7thRush Def2thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13989th+0.2070th
Red Zone+0.11674th+0.2904th
Third Down+0.20770th+0.5163th
No Garbage Time+0.13488th+0.1815th
First Half+0.02755th+0.2282th
Second Half+0.25498th+0.1848th
Early Downs+0.12589th+0.1593th
Passing Downs+0.18080th+0.2677th
Standard Downs+0.11988th+0.1802th
Goal to Go+0.37187th+0.27418th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
14.3%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
16.7
Yards/Game
513.2
Pts/Drive
2.44
3rd Down%
46.7%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points344428
Points / Game34.442.8
First Downs
Total248252
Rushing117120
Passing117110
Penalty1422
Rushing
Attempts443441
Yards2,3022,692
Yards / Carry5.26.1
Yards / Game230.2269.2
Touchdowns1832
Passing
Attempts336311
Completions185195
Completion %55.1%62.7%
Yards2,8302,529
Yards / Attempt8.48.1
Touchdowns2825
Interceptions97
Passer Rating147.95153.03
Total Offense
Plays779752
Yards5,1325,221
Yards / Play6.66.9
Yards / Game513.2522.1
Punt Returns
Returns1511
Yards5754
Average3.84.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns3038
Yards587736
Average19.619.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3740
Yards1,6051,645
Average43.441.1
Interception Returns
Returns79
Yards21178
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1012
Lost62
Penalties
Penalties6868
Yards536561
Yards / Game53.656.1
Time of Possession
Per Game25:3834:23
Third Downs
Attempts150144
Conversions7068
Conversion %46.7%47.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2414
Conversions116
Conversion %45.8%42.9%
Red Zone
Trips3453
Scores (TD + FG)2745
Score %79.4%84.9%
Touchdowns2242
TD %64.7%79.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1513
Made87
Pct53.3%53.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4557
Made4457
Pct97.8%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →