Fourth Down Data
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WVU

West Virginia

MountaineersRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference6-7#88 (-2.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
74· BRating
81· BPer play
60· CConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
8· FRating
1· FPer play
19· DConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
92· A-3rd down O
1· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.079
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.079
Defensive EPA/play
+0.195
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.1%
Def Success Rate
48.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.116
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.66

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.11
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#88
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#81
market 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#46
recruiting 42 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where West Virginia ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
78th
Opp-adjusted defense
1th
Offensive EPA/play
81th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
66th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
80th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate4372North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3943North Texas2017OA -0.005 / -0.142similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, havoc rate3864North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3845Air Force2025OA +0.132 / -0.200similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, havoc rate381

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Penn State12-34L+8.0L51.5U
2vs Albany49-14W-37.8L53.5O
3@ Pittsburgh34-38L-2.0L64.5O
4vs Kansas32-28W-2.0W57.5O
6@ Oklahoma State38-14W+3.0W64.5U
7vs Iowa State16-28L+3.0L51.5U
8vs Kansas State18-45L+3.0L54.5O
9@ Arizona31-26W+3.0W54.5O
11@ Cincinnati31-24W+5.0W56.5U
12vs Baylor35-49L+2.5L59O
13vs UCF31-21W+3.0W63.5U
14@ Texas Tech15-52L+3.5L64.5O
17vs Memphis37-42L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
6-7
46.2%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS5-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off90thRush Off72thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off93thPass Def1thRush Def8thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def1th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09884th+0.1841th
Red Zone+0.26893th+0.09530th
Third Down+0.35993th+0.4731th
No Garbage Time+0.07180th+0.1911th
First Half+0.10281th+0.1874th
Second Half+0.09378th+0.1813th
Early Downs+0.03472th+0.0969th
Passing Downs+0.18090th+0.3401th
Standard Downs+0.05272th+0.1078th
Goal to Go+0.35194th-0.03151th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.2%Rush 58.8%
Havoc/Game
9.3
Havoc Rate
14.1%
TO Margin
-0.6
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
404.0
Pts/Drive
2.66
3rd Down%
42.6%
3&Out%
17.6%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — West Virginia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWest VirginiaOpponents
Scoring
Points379415
Points / Game29.231.9
First Downs
Total294283
Rushing141109
Passing128156
Penalty2518
Rushing
Attempts529444
Yards2,5181,877
Yards / Carry4.84.2
Yards / Game193.7144.4
Touchdowns2728
Passing
Attempts371386
Completions226247
Completion %60.9%64.0%
Yards2,7343,521
Yards / Attempt7.49.1
Touchdowns2026
Interceptions145
Passer Rating133.06160.25
Total Offense
Plays900830
Yards5,2525,398
Yards / Play5.86.5
Yards / Game404.0415.2
Punt Returns
Returns159
Yards12360
Average8.26.7
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2438
Yards530648
Average22.117.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3643
Yards1,5301,880
Average42.543.7
Interception Returns
Returns514
Yards10174
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles1910
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties5777
Yards446664
Yards / Game34.351.1
Time of Possession
Per Game31:6027:60
Third Downs
Attempts176156
Conversions7577
Conversion %42.6%49.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts4020
Conversions2513
Conversion %62.5%65.0%
Red Zone
Trips5348
Scores (TD + FG)4542
Score %84.9%87.5%
Touchdowns3936
TD %73.6%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1412
Made138
Pct92.9%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4252
Made4251
Pct100.0%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts84
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →