Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference7-7#46 (+2.80)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
81· BRating
87· BPer play
63· CConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
30· DRating
12· FPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.108
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.120
Defensive EPA/play
+0.095
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.5%
Def Success Rate
48.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.026
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.016
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.77

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.33
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.06
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.42
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#71
model 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 29 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
87th
Defensive EPA/play
12th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
10th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4902West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, havoc rate4373Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, pass defense4114Ohio2019OA +0.101 / -0.101similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3925Navy2017OA +0.069 / -0.058similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense390

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ UTEP31-13W-1.5W54.5U
1vs SMU10-48L+11.0L68.5U
2vs Texas Southern59-27W-37.5L69.75O
3@ UNLV27-58L+2.5L63.5O
4@ Memphis34-44L+12.5W70O
5vs Florida Atlantic45-28W+3.5W68O
7vs Louisiana Tech47-27W-6.5W68O
8@ UTSA27-31L+10.0W71.5U
9@ Western Kentucky40-13W+10.0W70U
10vs Florida International52-14W-21.0W62O
11@ UAB21-41L+6.0L57.5O
13vs Rice21-17W+8.5L69.5O
14@ UTSA27-48L----
16@ Boise State32-35L+10.5W59.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
7-7
50.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS5-3
Favorite ATS3-2
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off54thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off51thPass Def28thRush Def9thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07478th+0.09111th
Red Zone+0.08267th+0.13721th
Third Down+0.07951th+0.33510th
No Garbage Time+0.10687th+0.09611th
First Half+0.09880th+0.05424th
Second Half+0.04570th+0.1315th
Early Downs+0.02366th+0.0978th
Passing Downs+0.21792th+0.07128th
Standard Downs+0.00254th+0.1009th
Goal to Go-0.07443th+0.03840th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
14.2%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
461.8
Pts/Drive
2.77
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points473444
Points / Game33.831.7
First Downs
Total305329
Rushing131149
Passing152164
Penalty2216
Rushing
Attempts536572
Yards2,7982,769
Yards / Carry5.24.8
Yards / Game199.9197.8
Touchdowns2426
Passing
Attempts432487
Completions241309
Completion %55.8%63.4%
Yards3,6673,669
Yards / Attempt8.57.5
Touchdowns3424
Interceptions168
Passer Rating145.65139.71
Total Offense
Plays9681,059
Yards6,4656,438
Yards / Play6.76.1
Yards / Game461.8459.9
Punt Returns
Returns1112
Yards4946
Average4.53.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4617
Yards878371
Average19.121.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5557
Yards2,1702,453
Average39.543.0
Interception Returns
Returns816
Yards149400
Touchdowns15
Fumbles
Fumbles1015
Lost67
Penalties
Penalties7385
Yards589772
Yards / Game42.155.1
Time of Possession
Per Game27:1732:27
Third Downs
Attempts189216
Conversions8199
Conversion %42.9%45.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2330
Conversions1316
Conversion %56.5%53.3%
Red Zone
Trips5657
Scores (TD + FG)4948
Score %87.5%84.2%
Touchdowns3634
TD %64.3%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2125
Made1819
Pct85.7%76.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5954
Made5753
Pct96.6%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts11
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →