Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesRun-Heavy
Mountain West Conference9-5#80 (-0.96)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
74· BRating
87· BPer play
66· CConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
10· FPer play
20· DConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
21· DRed-zone D
50· C3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.071
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.096
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.098
Defensive EPA/play
+0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.2%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.022
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.70
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.83
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#80
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#98
model 18 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 8 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
15th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
11th
Offensive success rate
67th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
8th
Points per drive
81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4902Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4133North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA3934UNLV2017OA +0.008 / -0.156similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, rushing offense3785North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA365

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia Tech22-21W+18.0W57U
2vs Wyoming43-50L+4.0L45.5O
3@ Michigan10-63L+27.5L54.25O
4vs Maine41-14W-21.5W62U
5vs Eastern Michigan27-20W-2.5W60U
6@ Toledo22-20W+13.0W52.5U
7vs Bowling Green34-26W-9.0L45.5O
8@ Central Michigan39-38W+5.0W57.75O
10@ Kent State47-52L+2.5W61.5U
11vs Ball State30-29W-1.5W60.5U
12@ Buffalo33-27W+5.5L61O
13vs Western Michigan21-42L----
14vs Kent State41-23W+3.5W74.5U
16@ Coastal Carolina41-47L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-5
64.3%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS3-1
Underdog ATS6-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off60thRush Off95thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off50thPass Def17thRush Def10thRed Zone Def21th3rd Down Def35th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10691th+0.1189th
Red Zone+0.06467th+0.11521th
Third Down+0.08250th+0.14435th
No Garbage Time+0.11089th+0.12311th
First Half+0.12086th+0.1626th
Second Half+0.09288th+0.07420th
Early Downs+0.09989th+0.1237th
Passing Downs+0.03460th+0.11917th
Standard Downs+0.14495th+0.11810th
Goal to Go+0.00658th+0.02444th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.4%Rush 64.6%
Havoc/Game
9.2
Havoc Rate
13.8%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
17.7
Yards/Game
428.7
Pts/Drive
2.64
3rd Down%
38.3%
3&Out%
17.8%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points451472
Points / Game32.233.7
First Downs
Total323309
Rushing182158
Passing115137
Penalty2614
Rushing
Attempts649517
Yards3,3793,003
Yards / Carry5.25.8
Yards / Game241.4214.5
Touchdowns3633
Passing
Attempts355408
Completions205246
Completion %57.7%60.3%
Yards2,6233,332
Yards / Attempt7.48.2
Touchdowns1527
Interceptions83
Passer Rating129.25149.26
Total Offense
Plays1,004925
Yards6,0026,335
Yards / Play6.06.8
Yards / Game428.7452.5
Punt Returns
Returns1118
Yards64176
Average5.89.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4151
Yards748767
Average18.215.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4946
Yards2,1341,976
Average43.643.0
Interception Returns
Returns38
Yards83109
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1817
Lost109
Penalties
Penalties7077
Yards634651
Yards / Game45.346.5
Time of Possession
Per Game33:3026:30
Third Downs
Attempts193172
Conversions7471
Conversion %38.3%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3029
Conversions2512
Conversion %83.3%41.4%
Red Zone
Trips5649
Scores (TD + FG)5140
Score %91.1%81.6%
Touchdowns3234
TD %57.1%69.4%
Field Goals
Attempts3023
Made2515
Pct83.3%65.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4656
Made4655
Pct100.0%98.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts74
Made32
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →