← All Teams
TOL
Toledo
RocketsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference6-6#114 (-11.68)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
16· DOverall
Offense
17· DRating
58· CPer play
59· CConsistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
18· DRating
7· FPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
56· CRed-zone O
18· DRed-zone D
41· C3rd down O
2· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.123
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.033
Defensive EPA/play
+0.123
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.0%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.090
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.046
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.15
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+0.13
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.13
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.12
own return game
Return Defense
-0.06
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#114
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 39 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Toledo ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense51th
Opp-adjusted defense8th
Offensive EPA/play59th
Defensive EPA/play7th
Offensive success rate68th
Explosiveness93th
Defensive havoc26th
Points per drive47th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: havoc rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA4362Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: takeaway rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4133North Texas2022OA +0.077 / -0.108similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, pass defense4114North Texas2020OA +0.038 / -0.073similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, turnover rate3925Eastern Michigan2025OA +0.012 / -0.169similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA389
2019 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Kentucky | 24-38 | L | +9.5 | L | 60.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Murray State | 45-0 | W | -36.5 | W | 70 | U |
| 4 | @ Colorado State | 41-35 | W | -6.0 | P | 67.5 | O |
| 5 | vs BYU | 28-21 | W | +1.5 | W | 63.5 | U |
| 6 | vs Western Michigan | 31-24 | W | -1.5 | W | 74 | U |
| 7 | @ Bowling Green | 7-20 | L | -26.5 | L | 65 | U |
| 8 | @ Ball State | 14-52 | L | +3.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Eastern Michigan | 37-34 | W | -2.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 35-33 | W | -4.5 | L | 63 | O |
| 12 | vs Northern Illinois | 28-31 | L | -2.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | @ Buffalo | 30-49 | L | +10.0 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Central Michigan | 7-49 | L | +14.5 | L | 64 | U |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-7-1
36.4%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
6-6
50.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS0-5
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.052 | 68th | +0.112 | 8th |
| Red Zone | +0.004 | 57th | +0.118 | 18th |
| Third Down | -0.006 | 42th | +0.382 | 2th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.015 | 53th | +0.124 | 7th |
| First Half | +0.001 | 46th | +0.118 | 15th |
| Second Half | +0.105 | 83th | +0.106 | 12th |
| Early Downs | +0.066 | 77th | +0.081 | 12th |
| Passing Downs | +0.001 | 46th | +0.160 | 17th |
| Standard Downs | +0.078 | 80th | +0.088 | 10th |
| Goal to Go | +0.048 | 60th | +0.348 | 4th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 39.6%Rush 60.4%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
-0.7
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
434.1
Pts/Drive
2.15
3rd Down%
38.0%
3&Out%
20.6%
Team Statistics
2019 season totals across 12 games — Toledo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Toledo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 327 | 386 |
| Points / Game | 27.3 | 32.2 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 261 | 277 |
| Rushing | 126 | 119 |
| Passing | 116 | 135 |
| Penalty | 19 | 23 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 517 | 483 |
| Yards | 2,694 | 2,621 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 5.4 |
| Yards / Game | 224.5 | 218.4 |
| Touchdowns | 27 | 31 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 339 | 379 |
| Completions | 193 | 237 |
| Completion % | 56.9% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 2,515 | 3,087 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 8.1 |
| Touchdowns | 15 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 129.72 | 143.80 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 856 | 862 |
| Yards | 5,209 | 5,708 |
| Yards / Play | 6.1 | 6.6 |
| Yards / Game | 434.1 | 475.7 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 17 |
| Yards | 154 | 139 |
| Average | 7.7 | 8.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 46 | 23 |
| Yards | 957 | 505 |
| Average | 20.8 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 49 |
| Yards | 2,350 | 2,090 |
| Average | 42.7 | 42.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 7 |
| Yards | 54 | 12 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 23 | 8 |
| Lost | 12 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 67 | 71 |
| Yards | 608 | 634 |
| Yards / Game | 50.7 | 52.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:52 | 29:57 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 171 | 169 |
| Conversions | 65 | 71 |
| Conversion % | 38.0% | 42.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 23 |
| Conversions | 18 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 58.1% | 43.5% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 48 | 46 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 37 | 39 |
| Score % | 77.1% | 84.8% |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 29 |
| TD % | 64.6% | 63.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 20 |
| Made | 11 | 12 |
| Pct | 68.8% | 60.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 46 |
| Made | 38 | 46 |
| Pct | 97.4% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 4 |
| Made | 2 | 2 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.