Fourth Down Data
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EMU

Eastern Michigan

EaglesBalanced
Mid-American Conference4-8#120 (-13.77)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

12· FOverall
Offense
32· DRating
54· CPer play
32· DConsistency
51· CBig plays
Defense
9· FRating
10· FPer play
23· DConsistency
Situational
87· BRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.012
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.169
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.009
Defensive EPA/play
+0.110
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.5%
Def Success Rate
47.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.101
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.015
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.60
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#120
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#105
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 41 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Eastern Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
60th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
54th
Defensive EPA/play
10th
Offensive success rate
44th
Explosiveness
51th
Defensive havoc
3th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1West Virginia2022OA +0.016 / -0.049similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA4062Kansas2019OA +0.049 / -0.077similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3993Toledo2019OA -0.001 / -0.123similar: run defense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3894Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: run defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3855Texas State2020OA -0.012 / -0.051similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate373

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas State27-52L+14.0L56.5O
2vs LIU23-28L-22.3L54.5U
3@ Kentucky23-48L+26.5W49.5O
4vs Louisiana34-31W+2.5W59O
5@ Central Michigan13-24L+3.5L54.5U
6@ Buffalo30-31L-4.5L49.5O
7vs Northern Illinois16-10W+2.5W47.5U
8@ Miami (OH)30-44L+13.0L47.5O
9vs Ohio21-28L+11.5W58.5U
11vs Bowling Green27-21W-2.5W50.5U
12@ Ball State24-9W-2.5W49.5U
14vs Western Michigan21-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-5-1
54.5%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
LWWWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off69thRed Zone Off88th3rd Down Off72thPass Def7thRush Def13thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05270th+0.1088th
Red Zone+0.20488th+0.08829th
Third Down+0.19372th+0.21815th
No Garbage Time+0.01356th+0.10810th
First Half+0.12786th+0.1883th
Second Half-0.03239th+0.02538th
Early Downs+0.04475th+0.06514th
Passing Downs+0.05767th+0.1577th
Standard Downs+0.04969th+0.08313th
Goal to Go+0.13669th+0.22919th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.9%Rush 49.1%
Havoc/Game
8.6
Havoc Rate
12.7%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
377.3
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
41.3%
3&Out%
22.7%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Eastern Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatEastern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points289357
Points / Game24.129.8
First Downs
Total243249
Rushing98132
Passing12198
Penalty2419
Rushing
Attempts390505
Yards1,7102,785
Yards / Carry4.45.5
Yards / Game142.5232.1
Touchdowns1629
Passing
Attempts404295
Completions247178
Completion %61.1%60.3%
Yards2,8172,210
Yards / Attempt7.07.5
Touchdowns1816
Interceptions117
Passer Rating128.97136.42
Total Offense
Plays794800
Yards4,5274,995
Yards / Play5.76.2
Yards / Game377.3416.3
Punt Returns
Returns618
Yards55172
Average9.29.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2623
Yards493508
Average19.022.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5046
Yards2,2922,087
Average45.845.4
Interception Returns
Returns711
Yards42114
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles95
Lost32
Penalties
Penalties6874
Yards586681
Yards / Game48.856.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0131:53
Third Downs
Attempts172163
Conversions7176
Conversion %41.3%46.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1819
Conversions1111
Conversion %61.1%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips3752
Scores (TD + FG)3541
Score %94.6%78.8%
Touchdowns2434
TD %64.9%65.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2317
Made1711
Pct73.9%64.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2846
Made2846
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts60
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →