Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference5-7#102 (-4.03)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

25· DOverall
Offense
76· BRating
92· A-Per play
76· BConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
0· FRating
1· FPer play
1· FConsistency
Situational
81· BRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
10· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.070
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.236
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.147
Defensive EPA/play
+0.215
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.2%
Def Success Rate
53.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.068
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.72

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.68
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.95
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#102
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#97
market 5 higher
Recruiting Rank
#76
recruiting 26 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
80th
Opp-adjusted defense
0th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
1th
Offensive success rate
78th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
2th
Points per drive
84th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arizona2022OA +0.125 / -0.168similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4312Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4003SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3994Northern Illinois2021OA +0.071 / -0.096similar: takeaway rate, run defense, offensive EPA3945West Virginia2024OA +0.027 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate393

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs California21-58L+6.5L54O
2@ Florida International39-46L-12.3L51.5O
3@ Louisiana Tech40-37W+4.5W69.5O
5vs Abilene Christian45-31W----
6@ Navy24-27L+6.0W61U
7vs Temple45-14W-6.0W70.5U
8@ Tulane28-35L+20.0W63P
9vs Memphis42-45L+7.5W69.25O
10vs UTSA29-37L+7.5L71.5U
11@ SMU21-45L----
12@ Tulsa35-28W-2.5W66.5U
13vs UAB45-42W-3.0P74O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-1
60.0%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS4-3
Last 5 ATS
WLLWP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off92thRush Off77thRed Zone Off82th3rd Down Off96thPass Def7thRush Def1thRed Zone Def4th3rd Down Def10th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13493th+0.1981th
Red Zone+0.14182th+0.2794th
Third Down+0.51796th+0.41610th
No Garbage Time+0.14893th+0.2051th
First Half+0.11176th+0.2881th
Second Half+0.16397th+0.10816th
Early Downs-0.01757th+0.1851th
Passing Downs+0.28192th+0.2227th
Standard Downs+0.05277th+0.1891th
Goal to Go+0.04254th+0.34113th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
9.8
Havoc Rate
13.0%
TO Margin
-0.4
Explosive/G
20.9
Yards/Game
495.8
Pts/Drive
2.72
3rd Down%
42.2%
3&Out%
13.9%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points414445
Points / Game34.537.1
First Downs
Total297281
Rushing126151
Passing157117
Penalty1413
Rushing
Attempts449544
Yards2,2943,062
Yards / Carry5.15.6
Yards / Game191.2255.2
Touchdowns1937
Passing
Attempts462328
Completions284191
Completion %61.5%58.2%
Yards3,6562,655
Yards / Attempt7.98.1
Touchdowns3322
Interceptions910
Passer Rating147.62142.26
Total Offense
Plays911872
Yards5,9505,717
Yards / Play6.56.6
Yards / Game495.8476.4
Punt Returns
Returns114
Yards5019
Average4.54.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns375
Yards72056
Average19.511.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3948
Yards1,6482,067
Average42.343.1
Interception Returns
Returns109
Yards50166
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles218
Lost104
Penalties
Penalties5761
Yards559482
Yards / Game46.640.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1230:34
Third Downs
Attempts173169
Conversions7378
Conversion %42.2%46.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3527
Conversions2116
Conversion %60.0%59.3%
Red Zone
Trips4948
Scores (TD + FG)4442
Score %89.8%87.5%
Touchdowns3235
TD %65.3%72.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1913
Made169
Pct84.2%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4655
Made4652
Pct100.0%94.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →