Fourth Down Data
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SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-6#68 (+0.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

50· COverall
Offense
86· BRating
89· BPer play
76· BConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
18· DRating
9· FPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
80· BRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.085
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.136
Defensive EPA/play
+0.115
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.021
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.97

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.89
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
-0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#34
market 34 higher
Recruiting Rank
#60
recruiting 8 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
16th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
16th
Points per drive
92th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4502Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate4243UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate4194Stanford2020OA +0.023 / -0.041similar: run defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate4135Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: havoc rate, run defense, defensive EPA412

2022 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ North Texas48-10W-11.0W68.5U
2vs Lamar45-16W-49.0L62U
3@ Maryland27-34L+2.5L73U
4vs TCU34-42L+2.0L70.5O
6@ UCF19-41L-12.5L57.5O
7vs Navy40-34W----
8vs Cincinnati27-29L+3.5W58.5U
9@ Tulsa45-34W-2.5W64O
10vs Houston77-63W-3.0W66.5O
11@ South Florida41-23W+3.0L65O
12@ Tulane24-59L----
13vs Memphis34-31W-4.5L69.5U
16@ BYU23-24L-4.0L64U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
7-6
53.8%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS4-4
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off75thRed Zone Off81th3rd Down Off96thPass Def17thRush Def10thRed Zone Def28th3rd Down Def44th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12790th+0.1039th
Red Zone+0.13081th+0.09628th
Third Down+0.46396th+0.07244th
No Garbage Time+0.14190th+0.09910th
First Half+0.13887th+0.09716th
Second Half+0.11587th+0.1087th
Early Downs+0.08487th+0.09010th
Passing Downs+0.26996th+0.10717th
Standard Downs+0.05975th+0.10010th
Goal to Go+0.04765th-0.14464th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
10.9
Havoc Rate
14.9%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
18.2
Yards/Game
472.8
Pts/Drive
2.97
3rd Down%
47.8%
3&Out%
12.8%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 13 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points484440
Points / Game37.233.8
First Downs
Total331283
Rushing122134
Passing174128
Penalty3521
Rushing
Attempts492535
Yards2,0302,647
Yards / Carry4.14.9
Yards / Game156.2203.6
Touchdowns2630
Passing
Attempts513399
Completions333227
Completion %64.9%56.9%
Yards4,1172,961
Yards / Attempt8.07.4
Touchdowns3625
Interceptions1110
Passer Rating151.19134.89
Total Offense
Plays1,005934
Yards6,1475,608
Yards / Play6.16.0
Yards / Game472.8431.4
Punt Returns
Returns158
Yards14246
Average9.55.8
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2237
Yards351857
Average16.023.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4051
Yards1,7472,313
Average43.745.4
Interception Returns
Returns1011
Yards113184
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles2113
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties5599
Yards545870
Yards / Game41.966.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3132:19
Third Downs
Attempts203189
Conversions9771
Conversion %47.8%37.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3736
Conversions2224
Conversion %59.5%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips6252
Scores (TD + FG)5744
Score %91.9%84.6%
Touchdowns4533
TD %72.6%63.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2022
Made1616
Pct80.0%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5852
Made5850
Pct100.0%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →