Fourth Down Data
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STAN

Stanford

CardinalBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference4-2#58 (+0.94)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
71· BRating
83· BPer play
93· AConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
8· FPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
19· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.023
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.041
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.118
Defensive EPA/play
+0.163
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.9%
Def Success Rate
52.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.045
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.57

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.27
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.33
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.57
own return game
Return Defense
+0.57
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#58
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#62
model 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Stanford ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
76th
Opp-adjusted defense
9th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
8th
Offensive success rate
95th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: run defense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate4132Rutgers2025OA +0.072 / -0.178similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3783North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3654Temple2025OA +0.068 / -0.135similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3595Syracuse2024OA +0.063 / -0.030similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate355

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10@ Oregon14-35L+10.0L51U
11vs Colorado32-35L-7.0L54.5O
13@ California24-23W----
14@ Washington31-26W+11.5W50.5O
15@ Oregon State27-24W-2.5W52.5U
16@ UCLA48-47W+6.5W59O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
3-3
50.0%
O/U Record
3-3
50.0%
Straight Up
4-2
66.7%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-2
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off96thRush Off55thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off70thPass Def5thRush Def13thRed Zone Def31th3rd Down Def19th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11887th+0.1635th
Red Zone+0.30596th+0.07631th
Third Down+0.20570th+0.27419th
No Garbage Time+0.10476th+0.1655th
First Half+0.10975th+0.00553th
Second Half+0.12687th+0.3101th
Early Downs+0.05976th+0.07419th
Passing Downs+0.35096th+0.2755th
Standard Downs+0.02055th+0.11413th
Goal to Go+0.43392th+0.08345th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
9.5
Havoc Rate
13.9%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
420.2
Pts/Drive
2.57
3rd Down%
48.2%
3&Out%
14.7%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Stanford vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatStanfordOpponents
Scoring
Points176190
Points / Game29.331.7
First Downs
Total132139
Rushing3872
Passing8358
Penalty119
Rushing
Attempts198244
Yards7971,332
Yards / Carry4.05.5
Yards / Game132.8222.0
Touchdowns1512
Passing
Attempts222156
Completions145100
Completion %65.3%64.1%
Yards1,7241,300
Yards / Attempt7.88.3
Touchdowns712
Interceptions32
Passer Rating138.25156.92
Total Offense
Plays420400
Yards2,5212,632
Yards / Play6.06.6
Yards / Game420.2438.7
Punt Returns
Returns47
Yards2038
Average5.05.4
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2110
Yards513185
Average24.418.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts2322
Yards898886
Average39.040.3
Interception Returns
Returns23
Yards039
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles68
Lost25
Penalties
Penalties3432
Yards310272
Yards / Game51.745.3
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5128:10
Third Downs
Attempts8576
Conversions4139
Conversion %48.2%51.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts75
Conversions65
Conversion %85.7%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips2729
Scores (TD + FG)2425
Score %88.9%86.2%
Touchdowns2119
TD %77.8%65.5%
Field Goals
Attempts119
Made76
Pct63.6%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1824
Made1722
Pct94.4%91.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts41
Made30
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →