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RUTG
Rutgers
Scarlet KnightsBalancedBig Ten Conference5-7#79 (-2.78)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
42· COverall
Offense
68· CRating
81· BPer play
86· BConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
13· FRating
0· FPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
37· DRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
61· C3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.072
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.178
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
+0.232
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
51.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.135
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.024
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.68
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+1.31
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.27
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.90
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#79
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#92
model 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
recruiting 43 spots higher
12 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense76th
Opp-adjusted defense1th
Offensive EPA/play81th
Defensive EPA/play0th
Offensive success rate88th
Explosiveness89th
Defensive havoc6th
Points per drive79th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, pass defense4942North Carolina2022OA +0.207 / -0.152similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3993Stanford2020OA +0.023 / -0.041similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3784North Texas2023OA +0.070 / -0.236similar: run defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3695Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: passing offense, rushing offense, defensive EPA364
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Ohio | 34-31 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Miami (OH) | 45-17 | W | -20.5 | W | 54 | O |
| 3 | vs Norfolk State | 60-10 | W | -31.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 4 | vs Iowa | 28-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Minnesota | 28-31 | L | +5.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Washington | 19-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Oregon | 10-56 | L | +17.5 | L | 61.5 | O |
| 9 | @ Purdue | 27-24 | W | -1.5 | W | 58.5 | U |
| 10 | @ Illinois | 13-35 | L | +13.0 | L | 62.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Maryland | 35-20 | W | -7.5 | W | 65.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Ohio State | 9-42 | L | +31.5 | L | 55.5 | U |
| 14 | vs Penn State | 36-40 | L | +13.5 | W | 61.25 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-5
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.095 | 84th | +0.235 | 0th |
| Red Zone | -0.064 | 38th | +0.163 | 16th |
| Third Down | +0.137 | 61th | +0.225 | 14th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.084 | 79th | +0.243 | 0th |
| First Half | +0.120 | 84th | +0.241 | 0th |
| Second Half | +0.067 | 76th | +0.229 | 1th |
| Early Downs | +0.067 | 81th | +0.172 | 0th |
| Passing Downs | +0.086 | 76th | +0.309 | 1th |
| Standard Downs | +0.100 | 85th | +0.201 | 0th |
| Goal to Go | -0.060 | 41th | -0.160 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.9%Rush 55.1%
Havoc/Game
8.2
Havoc Rate
13.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.5
Yards/Game
407.1
Pts/Drive
2.68
3rd Down%
42.5%
3&Out%
17.0%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Rutgers | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 344 | 382 |
| Points / Game | 28.7 | 31.8 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 279 | 249 |
| Rushing | 118 | 108 |
| Passing | 142 | 119 |
| Penalty | 19 | 22 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 466 | 371 |
| Yards | 1,692 | 2,519 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 6.8 |
| Yards / Game | 141.0 | 209.9 |
| Touchdowns | 19 | 25 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 379 | 312 |
| Completions | 234 | 204 |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 65.4% |
| Yards | 3,193 | 2,675 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.4 | 8.6 |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 23 |
| Interceptions | 7 | 5 |
| Passer Rating | 147.97 | 158.53 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 845 | 683 |
| Yards | 4,885 | 5,194 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Yards / Game | 407.1 | 432.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 5 |
| Yards | 91 | 59 |
| Average | 18.2 | 11.8 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 10 | 24 |
| Yards | 189 | 467 |
| Average | 18.9 | 19.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 33 | 37 |
| Yards | 1,460 | 1,371 |
| Average | 44.2 | 37.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 5 | 7 |
| Yards | 108 | 25 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 8 | 15 |
| Lost | 4 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 49 | 59 |
| Yards | 391 | 555 |
| Yards / Game | 32.6 | 46.3 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:31 | 27:29 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 160 | 114 |
| Conversions | 68 | 46 |
| Conversion % | 42.5% | 40.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 34 | 15 |
| Conversions | 21 | 11 |
| Conversion % | 61.8% | 73.3% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 54 | 50 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 43 | 44 |
| Score % | 79.6% | 88.0% |
| Touchdowns | 34 | 35 |
| TD % | 63.0% | 70.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 19 | 16 |
| Made | 13 | 11 |
| Pct | 68.4% | 68.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 41 | 49 |
| Made | 39 | 49 |
| Pct | 95.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 1 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.