Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-5#44 (+2.90)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

67· COverall
Offense
91· A-Rating
92· A-Per play
69· CConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
12· FRating
4· FPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
45· CRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
97· A+3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.207
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.152
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.155
Defensive EPA/play
+0.153
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
49.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.002
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.200
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.87

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.84
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.47
own return game
Return Defense
-0.58
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#44
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#43
market 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 28 spots higher
34 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
5th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
70th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
89th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UL Monroe2017OA +0.077 / -0.247similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, passing offense4762Virginia2021OA +0.166 / -0.113similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4023Rutgers2025OA +0.072 / -0.178similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3994Troy2019OA +0.097 / -0.123similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, pass defense3985SMU2022OA +0.037 / -0.085similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, defensive EPA393

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Florida A&M56-24W-42.5L56.5O
1@ App State63-61W-1.0W56O
2@ Georgia State35-28W-7.0P64.5U
4vs Notre Dame32-45L-1.5L55.5O
5vs Virginia Tech41-10W-9.0W51.5U
6@ Miami27-24W+3.5W66U
7@ Duke38-35W-7.0L66.5O
9vs Pittsburgh42-24W-3.0W65O
10@ Virginia31-28W-7.5L59P
11@ Wake Forest36-34W+3.5W77U
12vs Georgia Tech17-21L-6.5L56O
13vs NC State27-30L----
14vs Clemson10-39L+7.5L63.5U
18vs Oregon27-28L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7-1
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7-1
46.2%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS3-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-6
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off94thRush Off90thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off98thPass Def11thRush Def5thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def12th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15194th+0.1365th
Red Zone-0.00746th+0.2455th
Third Down+0.50898th+0.31712th
No Garbage Time+0.15593th+0.1534th
First Half+0.21196th+0.1874th
Second Half+0.08882th+0.08116th
Early Downs+0.04074th+0.1057th
Passing Downs+0.22394th+0.17811th
Standard Downs+0.11390th+0.1165th
Goal to Go-0.19524th+0.4742th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.9%Rush 49.1%
Havoc/Game
9.7
Havoc Rate
13.1%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
19.7
Yards/Game
462.8
Pts/Drive
2.87
3rd Down%
46.3%
3&Out%
16.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points482431
Points / Game34.430.8
First Downs
Total345322
Rushing124124
Passing194169
Penalty2729
Rushing
Attempts508513
Yards2,1492,313
Yards / Carry4.24.5
Yards / Game153.5165.2
Touchdowns2429
Passing
Attempts526482
Completions344317
Completion %65.4%65.8%
Yards4,3303,798
Yards / Attempt8.27.9
Touchdowns3827
Interceptions79
Passer Rating155.73146.71
Total Offense
Plays1,034995
Yards6,4796,111
Yards / Play6.36.1
Yards / Game462.8436.5
Punt Returns
Returns1722
Yards213152
Average12.56.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2327
Yards521623
Average22.723.1
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts5059
Yards2,2952,560
Average45.943.4
Interception Returns
Returns97
Yards10799
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1613
Lost75
Penalties
Penalties8687
Yards774714
Yards / Game55.351.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:5530:05
Third Downs
Attempts201189
Conversions9379
Conversion %46.3%41.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3527
Conversions2514
Conversion %71.4%51.9%
Red Zone
Trips7050
Scores (TD + FG)5543
Score %78.6%86.0%
Touchdowns4437
TD %62.9%74.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2119
Made1511
Pct71.4%57.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5852
Made5752
Pct98.3%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts55
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →