Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangePass-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference10-3#43 (+3.06)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

68· COverall
Offense
94· ARating
90· A-Per play
86· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
41· CRating
17· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
7· FRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.133
Defensive EPA/play
+0.072
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
49.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.060
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.247
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.28
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.99
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#43
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 23 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#53
model 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#63
model 20 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
22th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
87th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4122Memphis2023OA +0.076 / -0.068similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3673Stanford2020OA +0.023 / -0.041similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3554Tennessee2025OA +0.148 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3535Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate349

2024 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ohio38-22W-17.5L46.5O
2vs Georgia Tech31-28W+2.5W57.5O
4vs Stanford24-26L----
5vs Holy Cross42-14W-28.5L57.5U
6@ UNLV44-41W----
7@ NC State24-17W-4.5W54.5U
9@ Pittsburgh13-41L----
10vs Virginia Tech38-31W+4.0W53.5O
11@ Boston College31-37L+2.0L53O
12@ California33-25W+8.0W55.5O
13vs UConn31-24W-10.5L54O
14vs Miami42-38W+10.5W67.5O
18@ Washington State52-35W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6
53.8%
O/U Record
9-4
69.2%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS5-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off64thRush Off96thRed Zone Off69th3rd Down Off87thPass Def29thRush Def15thRed Zone Def7th3rd Down Def51th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12993th+0.07616th
Red Zone+0.09269th+0.2727th
Third Down+0.29787th+0.07751th
No Garbage Time+0.13192th+0.08015th
First Half+0.12187th+0.11411th
Second Half+0.13791th+0.04131th
Early Downs+0.06685th+0.04422th
Passing Downs+0.07664th+0.07029th
Standard Downs+0.15596th+0.07915th
Goal to Go+0.27287th+0.09634th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 59.8%Rush 40.2%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
467.6
Pts/Drive
2.94
3rd Down%
49.0%
3&Out%
10.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 13 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points443379
Points / Game34.129.2
First Downs
Total338255
Rushing8493
Passing231134
Penalty2328
Rushing
Attempts402389
Yards1,2691,953
Yards / Carry3.25.0
Yards / Game97.6150.2
Touchdowns2219
Passing
Attempts598405
Completions393267
Completion %65.7%65.9%
Yards4,8102,955
Yards / Attempt8.07.3
Touchdowns3422
Interceptions1211
Passer Rating148.03139.71
Total Offense
Plays1,000794
Yards6,0794,908
Yards / Play6.16.2
Yards / Game467.6377.5
Punt Returns
Returns1615
Yards166130
Average10.48.7
Touchdowns02
Kickoff Returns
Returns2016
Yards402342
Average20.121.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3652
Yards1,5092,206
Average41.942.4
Interception Returns
Returns1112
Yards102218
Touchdowns14
Fumbles
Fumbles1213
Lost35
Penalties
Penalties9266
Yards769606
Yards / Game59.246.6
Time of Possession
Per Game33:0426:45
Third Downs
Attempts192152
Conversions9458
Conversion %49.0%38.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3015
Conversions2010
Conversion %66.7%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips6247
Scores (TD + FG)5340
Score %85.5%85.1%
Touchdowns4329
TD %69.4%61.7%
Field Goals
Attempts2222
Made1316
Pct59.1%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5345
Made5245
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →