Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference10-3#46 (+3.27)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
89· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
53· CBig plays
Defense
23· DRating
16· DPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
83· BRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
77· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.076
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.068
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.143
Defensive EPA/play
+0.083
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.060
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.099
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.05

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#46
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#29
market 17 higher
Recruiting Rank
#64
model 18 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
94th
Explosiveness
53th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Tennessee2025OA +0.148 / -0.011similar: passing offense, rushing offense, offensive EPA4492UCF2020OA +0.077 / -0.036similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3873Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3784BYU2021OA +0.127 / -0.074similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, takeaway rate3755Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, run defense368

2023 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Bethune-Cookman56-14W-48.8L59.5O
2@ Arkansas State37-3W-21.0W57.5U
3vs Navy28-24W----
4@ Missouri27-34L+6.5L51.5O
5vs Boise State35-32W-3.0P59.5O
7vs Tulane21-31L----
8@ UAB45-21W-5.5W63O
9@ North Texas45-42W-7.5L69.25O
10vs South Florida59-50W-13.5L68.5O
11@ Charlotte44-38W-9.5L52O
12vs SMU34-38L-11.5W65O
13@ Temple45-21W----
18vs Iowa State36-26W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7-1
41.7%
O/U Record
11-2
84.6%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off64thRed Zone Off84th3rd Down Off90thPass Def64thRush Def7thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def78th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12891th+0.06524th
Red Zone+0.17084th+0.10126th
Third Down+0.40890th+0.05978th
No Garbage Time+0.14692th+0.08316th
First Half+0.15889th+0.01746th
Second Half+0.09480th+0.11212th
Early Downs-0.00064th+0.1513th
Passing Downs+0.36697th-0.00464th
Standard Downs+0.02464th+0.0997th
Goal to Go+0.09766th+0.5870th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
13.1
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
458.5
Pts/Drive
3.05
3rd Down%
45.3%
3&Out%
14.2%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 13 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points512374
Points / Game39.428.8
First Downs
Total296261
Rushing10399
Passing174142
Penalty1920
Rushing
Attempts429446
Yards1,9762,018
Yards / Carry4.64.5
Yards / Game152.0155.2
Touchdowns3121
Passing
Attempts481433
Completions321261
Completion %66.7%60.3%
Yards3,9843,484
Yards / Attempt8.38.0
Touchdowns3325
Interceptions1011
Passer Rating154.79141.84
Total Offense
Plays910879
Yards5,9605,502
Yards / Play6.56.3
Yards / Game458.5423.2
Punt Returns
Returns159
Yards11873
Average7.98.1
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2646
Yards566896
Average21.819.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4552
Yards1,9022,197
Average42.342.3
Interception Returns
Returns1110
Yards205121
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost59
Penalties
Penalties5365
Yards536568
Yards / Game41.243.7
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0828:51
Third Downs
Attempts172165
Conversions7855
Conversion %45.3%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2831
Conversions189
Conversion %64.3%29.0%
Red Zone
Trips6348
Scores (TD + FG)5540
Score %87.3%83.3%
Touchdowns4830
TD %76.2%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts1814
Made1312
Pct72.2%85.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6341
Made6140
Pct96.8%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts37
Made25
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →