Fourth Down Data
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UCF

UCF

KnightsBalanced
Big 12 Conference6-4#25 (+6.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
94· ARating
92· A-Per play
88· BConsistency
66· CBig plays
Defense
48· CRating
22· DPer play
12· FConsistency
Situational
67· CRed-zone O
8· FRed-zone D
87· B3rd down O
47· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.036
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.194
Defensive EPA/play
+0.098
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.2%
Def Success Rate
52.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.095
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.12

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.40
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.99
own return game
Return Defense
-0.31
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#25
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#10
market 15 higher
Recruiting Rank
#36
model 11 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
98th
Opp-adjusted defense
18th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
66th
Defensive havoc
57th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, offensive EPA4682Duke2025OA +0.147 / -0.119similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate4523Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4434Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4185USC2022OA +0.250 / -0.155similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, turnover rate407

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
3@ Georgia Tech49-21W-7.5W62.5O
4@ East Carolina51-28W-27.5L77O
5vs Tulsa26-34L-21.0L71U
7@ Memphis49-50L-3.5L73.5O
8vs Tulane51-34W-19.5L72O
9@ Houston44-21W-2.5W82.5U
11vs Temple38-13W-24.5W75.5U
12vs Cincinnati33-36L+4.5W65.5O
13@ South Florida58-46W----
17@ BYU23-49L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-6
40.0%
O/U Record
6-4
60.0%
Straight Up
6-4
60.0%
Home ATS2-2
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off92thRed Zone Off67th3rd Down Off88thPass Def21thRush Def26thRed Zone Def8th3rd Down Def48th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16691th+0.09919th
Red Zone+0.08267th+0.2048th
Third Down+0.32888th+0.08548th
No Garbage Time+0.17191th+0.08924th
First Half+0.21391th-0.01259th
Second Half+0.10780th+0.2104th
Early Downs+0.10787th+0.06523th
Passing Downs+0.17277th+0.16321th
Standard Downs+0.16392th+0.06926th
Goal to Go-0.19021th+0.04948th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.3%Rush 51.7%
Havoc/Game
15.9
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
19.1
Yards/Game
568.1
Pts/Drive
3.12
3rd Down%
48.8%
3&Out%
15.7%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points422332
Points / Game42.233.2
First Downs
Total283276
Rushing123112
Passing144144
Penalty1620
Rushing
Attempts444444
Yards2,1071,926
Yards / Carry4.74.3
Yards / Game210.7192.6
Touchdowns2317
Passing
Attempts415350
Completions249209
Completion %60.0%59.7%
Yards3,5742,992
Yards / Attempt8.68.5
Touchdowns3226
Interceptions49
Passer Rating155.86150.89
Total Offense
Plays859794
Yards5,6814,918
Yards / Play6.66.2
Yards / Game568.1491.8
Punt Returns
Returns911
Yards53120
Average5.910.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2025
Yards317571
Average15.822.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4046
Yards1,7562,092
Average43.945.5
Interception Returns
Returns94
Yards5636
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1221
Lost613
Penalties
Penalties9270
Yards748599
Yards / Game74.859.9
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3032:30
Third Downs
Attempts160146
Conversions7863
Conversion %48.8%43.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2220
Conversions1211
Conversion %54.5%55.0%
Red Zone
Trips5545
Scores (TD + FG)4940
Score %89.1%88.9%
Touchdowns3733
TD %67.3%73.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1711
Made128
Pct70.6%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4935
Made4634
Pct93.9%97.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts69
Made44
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →