Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference10-3#26 (+11.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
89· BRating
92· A-Per play
81· BConsistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
48· CRating
38· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
76· B3rd down O
14· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.130
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.165
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
47.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.139
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.108
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.00
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.39
own return game
Return Defense
+0.21
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#26
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#66
model 40 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
88th
Opp-adjusted defense
53th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
85th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, rushing offense4802SMU2017OA +0.140 / -0.078similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense4643UCF2020OA +0.077 / -0.036similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4434Tennessee2022OA +0.166 / -0.009similar: pass defense, passing offense, offensive EPA4165Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate414

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UL Monroe37-29W-3.5L67.5U
3vs UCLA48-45W+3.0W72O
4vs Southern Illinois44-31W-29.5L--
5@ UCF13-40L+6.0L68.5U
6@ UConn70-31W-16.0W76O
7vs Navy30-27W-3.0P72.5U
8@ Houston42-38W--61O
9vs Tulane56-26W-10.5W62O
10@ Tulsa41-14W-14.0W80U
12vs SMU66-45W-10.5W71.5O
13vs East Carolina70-13W-29.5W81.5O
14@ UCF55-62L+6.5L80O
18vs Iowa State20-21L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-4-1
60.0%
O/U Record
7-4
63.6%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS1-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off93thRed Zone Off89th3rd Down Off77thPass Def23thRush Def26thRed Zone Def48th3rd Down Def14th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.16895th+0.06424th
Red Zone+0.20889th+0.01648th
Third Down+0.14877th+0.19314th
No Garbage Time+0.16594th+0.04732th
First Half+0.13491th+0.03835th
Second Half+0.20598th+0.09113th
Early Downs+0.13198th-0.01645th
Passing Downs+0.25097th+0.11123th
Standard Downs+0.12693th+0.03626th
Goal to Go+0.32986th+0.03640th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 51.9%Rush 48.1%
Havoc/Game
16.9
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+1.2
Explosive/G
18.3
Yards/Game
532.1
Pts/Drive
2.99
3rd Down%
43.8%
3&Out%
16.9%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points592422
Points / Game45.532.5
First Downs
Total327318
Rushing106125
Passing188161
Penalty3332
Rushing
Attempts453568
Yards2,5622,394
Yards / Carry5.74.2
Yards / Game197.1184.2
Touchdowns3325
Passing
Attempts488486
Completions307283
Completion %62.9%58.2%
Yards4,3553,667
Yards / Attempt8.97.5
Touchdowns3931
Interceptions1016
Passer Rating160.15136.08
Total Offense
Plays9411,054
Yards6,9176,061
Yards / Play7.45.8
Yards / Game532.1466.2
Punt Returns
Returns215
Yards11523
Average5.54.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns4873
Yards1,2491,296
Average26.017.8
Touchdowns40
Punting
Punts5066
Yards2,0372,677
Average40.740.6
Interception Returns
Returns1610
Yards239146
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1028
Lost615
Penalties
Penalties11198
Yards1,006840
Yards / Game77.464.6
Time of Possession
Per Game26:2433:36
Third Downs
Attempts169215
Conversions7498
Conversion %43.8%45.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2030
Conversions1120
Conversion %55.0%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips6257
Scores (TD + FG)5646
Score %90.3%80.7%
Touchdowns4436
TD %71.0%63.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1914
Made1410
Pct73.7%71.4%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7752
Made7650
Pct98.7%96.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts14
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →