Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UCF

UCF

KnightsBalanced
Big 12 Conference13-0#11 (+18.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
94· ARating
96· APer play
96· AConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
71· BRating
46· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
66· CRed-zone O
26· DRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.155
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.201
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.4%
Def Success Rate
43.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.202
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.060
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.39

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.21
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.72
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.32
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#11
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#6
AP 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#53
model 42 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UCF ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
95th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
47th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
95th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, rushing offense4802SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense4333Tennessee2022OA +0.166 / -0.009similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, rushing offense3924Ohio State2020OA +0.077 / +0.018similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, turnover rate3815Vanderbilt2025OA +0.271 / -0.004similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate373

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Florida International61-17W+10.5W66U
4@ Maryland38-10W+4.0W61U
5vs Memphis40-13W-6.0W68.5U
6@ Cincinnati51-23W-15.0W53.5O
7vs East Carolina63-21W-35.0W70O
8@ Navy31-21W-10.0P64.5U
9vs Austin Peay73-33W-43.5L--
10@ SMU31-24W-14.0L76U
11vs UConn49-24W-39.0L63O
12@ Temple45-19W-13.5W58.5O
13vs South Florida49-42W-10.0L65O
14vs Memphis62-55W-6.5W80O
18@ Auburn34-27W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-4-1
63.6%
O/U Record
6-5
54.5%
Straight Up
12-0
100.0%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS5-4
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off97thRed Zone Off66th3rd Down Off98thPass Def23thRush Def59thRed Zone Def26th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.18297th+0.00045th
Red Zone+0.06766th+0.11426th
Third Down+0.40098th+0.2608th
No Garbage Time+0.20598th+0.01044th
First Half+0.19393th+0.00738th
Second Half+0.16897th-0.00747th
Early Downs+0.15598th-0.06164th
Passing Downs+0.24295th+0.10523th
Standard Downs+0.15497th-0.05959th
Goal to Go+0.08167th+0.01345th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.9%Rush 54.1%
Havoc/Game
14.5
Havoc Rate
19.1%
TO Margin
+1.3
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
530.5
Pts/Drive
3.39
3rd Down%
45.5%
3&Out%
14.6%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — UCF vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUCFOpponents
Scoring
Points627329
Points / Game48.225.3
First Downs
Total327280
Rushing120110
Passing170141
Penalty3729
Rushing
Attempts500498
Yards2,5832,079
Yards / Carry5.24.2
Yards / Game198.7159.9
Touchdowns3917
Passing
Attempts424471
Completions287261
Completion %67.7%55.4%
Yards4,3133,485
Yards / Attempt10.27.4
Touchdowns3824
Interceptions920
Passer Rating178.47125.89
Total Offense
Plays924969
Yards6,8965,564
Yards / Play7.55.7
Yards / Game530.5428.0
Punt Returns
Returns176
Yards25041
Average14.76.8
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3678
Yards8941,589
Average24.820.4
Touchdowns21
Punting
Punts4666
Yards1,8222,881
Average39.643.7
Interception Returns
Returns209
Yards303126
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost612
Penalties
Penalties109108
Yards888967
Yards / Game68.374.4
Time of Possession
Per Game28:0530:46
Third Downs
Attempts165201
Conversions7582
Conversion %45.5%40.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2031
Conversions1015
Conversion %50.0%48.4%
Red Zone
Trips7140
Scores (TD + FG)6034
Score %84.5%85.0%
Touchdowns5026
TD %70.4%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1818
Made1311
Pct72.2%61.1%
PAT Kicking
Attempts8139
Made8036
Pct98.8%92.3%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts33
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →