Fourth Down Data
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SMU

SMU

MustangsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference7-3#32 (+4.22)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

75· BOverall
Offense
84· BRating
87· BPer play
71· BConsistency
77· BBig plays
Defense
39· DRating
53· CPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
9· FRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
16· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.035
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.125
Defensive EPA/play
+0.017
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.9%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.108
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.006
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.79

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.47
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.23
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.35
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#32
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#20
market 12 higher
Recruiting Rank
#38
model 6 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where SMU ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
84th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
53th
Offensive success rate
79th
Explosiveness
78th
Defensive havoc
62th
Points per drive
86th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4912UCF2017OA +0.155 / +0.015similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, pass defense4333Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: havoc rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4314Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, passing offense4185Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: pass defense, run defense, turnover rate409

2020 Schedule & Results

10 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Texas State31-24W----
3@ North Texas65-35W-14.0W68O
4vs Stephen F. Austin50-7W----
5vs Memphis30-27W0.0W74.5U
7@ Tulane37-34W----
8vs Cincinnati13-42L-2.5L55.5U
9vs Navy51-37W-12.5W58.5O
10@ Temple47-23W-18.0W62O
11@ Tulsa24-28L+2.5L64U
13@ East Carolina38-52L-12.5L67.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-4
50.0%
O/U Record
5-3
62.5%
Straight Up
7-3
70.0%
Home ATS2-1
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off87thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off95thPass Def30thRush Def47thRed Zone Def9th3rd Down Def16th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13888th+0.06333th
Red Zone+0.05663th+0.2009th
Third Down+0.51295th+0.29116th
No Garbage Time+0.12086th+0.01154th
First Half+0.19090th+0.03344th
Second Half+0.08274th+0.09226th
Early Downs+0.10086th-0.01461th
Passing Downs+0.17477th+0.12430th
Standard Downs+0.11987th+0.02747th
Goal to Go+0.22076th+0.13735th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.9%Rush 50.1%
Havoc/Game
15.2
Havoc Rate
19.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
494.5
Pts/Drive
2.79
3rd Down%
46.9%
3&Out%
12.7%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 10 games — SMU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSMUOpponents
Scoring
Points386309
Points / Game38.630.9
First Downs
Total251228
Rushing9598
Passing127115
Penalty2915
Rushing
Attempts377428
Yards1,7651,803
Yards / Carry4.74.2
Yards / Game176.5180.3
Touchdowns2419
Passing
Attempts376320
Completions246186
Completion %65.4%58.1%
Yards3,1802,419
Yards / Attempt8.57.6
Touchdowns2322
Interceptions67
Passer Rating153.46139.94
Total Offense
Plays753748
Yards4,9454,222
Yards / Play6.65.6
Yards / Game494.5422.2
Punt Returns
Returns2110
Yards26175
Average12.47.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2920
Yards551339
Average19.016.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3451
Yards1,3022,242
Average38.344.0
Interception Returns
Returns76
Yards4879
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1017
Lost610
Penalties
Penalties6876
Yards590676
Yards / Game59.067.6
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3630:24
Third Downs
Attempts147152
Conversions6966
Conversion %46.9%43.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1822
Conversions713
Conversion %38.9%59.1%
Red Zone
Trips5042
Scores (TD + FG)4635
Score %92.0%83.3%
Touchdowns3229
TD %64.0%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2111
Made178
Pct81.0%72.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4640
Made4339
Pct93.5%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →