Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference10-4#31 (+4.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

76· BOverall
Offense
77· BRating
83· BPer play
89· BConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
38· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
23· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.090
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.101
Defensive EPA/play
+0.026
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.5%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.075
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.017
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.03
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.05
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#31
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#9
AP 22 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#6
recruiting 25 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
82th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
90th
Explosiveness
67th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
73th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, passing offense, offensive EPA4312SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: offensive EPA, run defense, takeaway rate4293Ohio2022OA +0.047 / -0.102similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4194Indiana2019OA +0.128 / -0.036similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, run defense3975UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA397

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Maryland29-34L+12.0W59U
2vs Tulsa28-21W-22.5L60.5U
3vs USC37-14W-4.0W47O
4vs TCU31-16W+3.0W50U
5@ Kansas State19-14W-8.5L48.5U
6@ Oklahoma48-45W+7.0W59O
7vs Baylor23-17W-14.0L58.5U
9@ Oklahoma State35-38L-2.5L60.5O
10vs West Virginia41-42L+1.0P58O
11@ Texas Tech41-34W-2.0W62.5O
12vs Iowa State24-10W-2.5W49.5U
13@ Kansas24-17W-14.5L50.5U
14@ Oklahoma27-39L+9.5L79.5U
19@ Georgia28-21W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6-1
50.0%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
10-3
76.9%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
PWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off85thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off86thPass Def36thRush Def45thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def23th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09686th+0.02242th
Red Zone+0.04055th-0.07164th
Third Down+0.25786th+0.17223th
No Garbage Time+0.11085th+0.01145th
First Half+0.15095th-0.00146th
Second Half+0.04467th+0.04736th
Early Downs+0.06678th-0.04960th
Passing Downs+0.11677th+0.07336th
Standard Downs+0.08685th-0.00445th
Goal to Go+0.29484th-0.19783th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 45.6%Rush 54.4%
Havoc/Game
14.7
Havoc Rate
20.3%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
17.9
Yards/Game
411.6
Pts/Drive
2.46
3rd Down%
46.4%
3&Out%
16.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points435362
Points / Game31.125.9
First Downs
Total325289
Rushing129104
Passing170158
Penalty2627
Rushing
Attempts569486
Yards2,1431,839
Yards / Carry3.83.8
Yards / Game153.1131.4
Touchdowns2418
Passing
Attempts476496
Completions310300
Completion %65.1%60.5%
Yards3,6193,660
Yards / Attempt7.67.4
Touchdowns2826
Interceptions612
Passer Rating145.88134.93
Total Offense
Plays1,045982
Yards5,7625,499
Yards / Play5.55.6
Yards / Game411.6392.8
Punt Returns
Returns1517
Yards183148
Average12.28.7
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2127
Yards427601
Average20.322.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6562
Yards2,5542,557
Average39.341.2
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards14917
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1623
Lost58
Penalties
Penalties10390
Yards894883
Yards / Game63.963.1
Time of Possession
Per Game32:2927:31
Third Downs
Attempts207210
Conversions9693
Conversion %46.4%44.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1522
Conversions1212
Conversion %80.0%54.5%
Red Zone
Trips5051
Scores (TD + FG)4139
Score %82.0%76.5%
Touchdowns3329
TD %66.0%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2525
Made1817
Pct72.0%68.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5243
Made5143
Pct98.1%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →