Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UTSA

UTSA

RoadrunnersBalanced
American Conference11-3#19 (+6.02)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
88· BRating
81· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
45· CRating
38· DPer play
81· BConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
64· CRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.068
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.097
Defensive EPA/play
+0.013
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.5%
Def Success Rate
42.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.054
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.94

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.22
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.69
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.02
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.54
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#15
market 4 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
model 56 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where UTSA ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
35th
Offensive EPA/play
82th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
91th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4912Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4603Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, turnover rate4334Oklahoma2023OA +0.095 / +0.041similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4015Texas2018OA +0.090 / +0.028similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA397

2022 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Houston35-37L+4.0W62O
2@ Army41-38W-2.5W54O
3@ Texas20-41L+12.5L58O
4vs Texas Southern52-24W-4.0W64O
5@ Middle Tennessee45-30W----
6vs Western Kentucky31-28W-6.5L72.5U
7@ Florida International30-10W----
8vs North Texas31-27W-10.0L71.5U
10@ UAB44-38W-1.5W52O
11vs Louisiana Tech51-7W-18.5W68.5U
12@ Rice41-7W-13.0W60.5U
13vs UTEP34-31W-8.5W69.5O
14vs North Texas48-27W----
16@ Troy12-18L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
8-6
57.1%
Straight Up
11-3
78.6%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off77thRush Off71thRed Zone Off31th3rd Down Off90thPass Def47thRush Def44thRed Zone Def64th3rd Down Def39th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06975th-0.00946th
Red Zone-0.08131th-0.12864th
Third Down+0.37190th+0.10839th
No Garbage Time+0.09281th+0.01439th
First Half+0.10281th-0.02652th
Second Half+0.03567th+0.01135th
Early Downs+0.05680th-0.06369th
Passing Downs+0.12177th-0.01247th
Standard Downs+0.04671th-0.00644th
Goal to Go-0.13531th-0.18370th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.1%Rush 51.9%
Havoc/Game
15.1
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
17.4
Yards/Game
476.0
Pts/Drive
2.94
3rd Down%
48.4%
3&Out%
10.0%

Team Statistics

2022 season totals across 14 games — UTSA vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatUTSAOpponents
Scoring
Points515363
Points / Game36.825.9
First Downs
Total362279
Rushing136111
Passing207140
Penalty1928
Rushing
Attempts543506
Yards2,4542,008
Yards / Carry4.54.0
Yards / Game175.3143.4
Touchdowns2821
Passing
Attempts503472
Completions341273
Completion %67.8%57.8%
Yards4,2103,408
Yards / Attempt8.47.2
Touchdowns3421
Interceptions915
Passer Rating156.83126.82
Total Offense
Plays1,046978
Yards6,6645,416
Yards / Play6.45.5
Yards / Game476.0386.9
Punt Returns
Returns1414
Yards7254
Average5.13.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2144
Yards395818
Average18.818.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4357
Yards1,9392,370
Average45.141.6
Interception Returns
Returns159
Yards205210
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1919
Lost107
Penalties
Penalties98103
Yards861801
Yards / Game61.557.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:4330:17
Third Downs
Attempts186209
Conversions9078
Conversion %48.4%37.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2737
Conversions1316
Conversion %48.1%43.2%
Red Zone
Trips6448
Scores (TD + FG)5639
Score %87.5%81.3%
Touchdowns4227
TD %65.6%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts2722
Made2217
Pct81.5%77.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5942
Made5942
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts53
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →