Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersBalanced
American Conference12-2#11 (+19.37)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
96· ARating
92· A-Per play
86· BConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
55· CRating
34· DPer play
61· CConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
22· DRed-zone D
88· B3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.169
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.025
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.149
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
44.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.109
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.089
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.08

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.82
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.31
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.40
own return game
Return Defense
-0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#11
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#17
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#60
model 49 spots higher
2 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
40th
Offensive EPA/play
93th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
84th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
52th
Points per drive
94th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, offensive success rate4602Ole Miss2025OA +0.189 / -0.005similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4173Washington2023OA +0.172 / +0.019similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3844Toledo2017OA +0.070 / -0.010similar: run defense, passing offense, TD drive rate3835Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, TD drive rate370

2019 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Ole Miss15-10W+7.0L59O
2vs Southern55-24W-41.0L68.5O
3@ South Alabama42-6W-20.5W55U
5vs Navy35-23W-11.0W53.5O
6@ UL Monroe52-33W-16.0W63.5O
7@ Temple28-30L-3.5L50O
8vs Tulane47-17W-2.5W61O
9@ Tulsa42-41W-10.0L59.5O
10vs SMU54-48W-6.5L72O
12@ Houston45-27W-10.0W72P
13@ South Florida49-10W-15.5W60.5U
14vs Cincinnati34-24W-14.0L59.5U
15vs Cincinnati29-24W-8.5L59U
18@ Penn State39-53L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
8-4-1
66.7%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS4-3
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off72thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off89thPass Def73thRush Def19thRed Zone Def23th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12593th+0.01840th
Red Zone-0.13928th+0.10123th
Third Down+0.24189th+0.10834th
No Garbage Time+0.14993th+0.03340th
First Half+0.20696th+0.07627th
Second Half+0.03962th-0.05370th
Early Downs+0.07078th-0.02161th
Passing Downs+0.27495th-0.07573th
Standard Downs+0.05272th+0.07319th
Goal to Go+0.15376th+0.26612th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.5%Rush 55.5%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
18.8%
TO Margin
-0.1
Explosive/G
16.8
Yards/Game
485.1
Pts/Drive
3.08
3rd Down%
46.1%
3&Out%
16.4%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 14 games — Memphis vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMemphisOpponents
Scoring
Points566370
Points / Game40.426.4
First Downs
Total327282
Rushing135134
Passing161120
Penalty3128
Rushing
Attempts551586
Yards2,6142,627
Yards / Carry4.74.5
Yards / Game186.7187.6
Touchdowns3227
Passing
Attempts441413
Completions281219
Completion %63.7%53.0%
Yards4,1772,742
Yards / Attempt9.56.6
Touchdowns3315
Interceptions1111
Passer Rating162.99115.45
Total Offense
Plays992999
Yards6,7915,369
Yards / Play6.85.4
Yards / Game485.1383.5
Punt Returns
Returns2516
Yards187107
Average7.56.7
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns4630
Yards1,206557
Average26.218.6
Touchdowns30
Punting
Punts4669
Yards2,0022,916
Average43.542.3
Interception Returns
Returns1111
Yards53238
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles2117
Lost98
Penalties
Penalties10391
Yards839802
Yards / Game59.957.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3229:28
Third Downs
Attempts193210
Conversions8983
Conversion %46.1%39.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2431
Conversions1415
Conversion %58.3%48.4%
Red Zone
Trips6150
Scores (TD + FG)5046
Score %82.0%92.0%
Touchdowns3730
TD %60.7%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2525
Made2318
Pct92.0%72.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6639
Made6538
Pct98.5%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts56
Made14
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →