Fourth Down Data
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WASH

Washington

HuskiesPass-Heavy
Big Ten Conference14-1#10 (+8.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
95· ARating
95· APer play
91· A-Consistency
87· BBig plays
Defense
71· BRating
25· DPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
51· CRed-zone O
16· DRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.172
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.162
Defensive EPA/play
+0.061
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.2%
Def Success Rate
46.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.101
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.071
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.96

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.26
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.91
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.18
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.04
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
AP 8 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#18
model 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#24
model 14 spots higher
20 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Washington ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
96th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
88th
Defensive havoc
25th
Points per drive
93th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA4302USC2025OA +0.145 / +0.017similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3923Memphis2019OA +0.169 / -0.025similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3844North Texas2025OA +0.233 / -0.035similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, offensive success rate3735Toledo2017OA +0.070 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, TD drive rate356

2023 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Boise State56-19W-14.0W58.5O
2vs Tulsa43-10W-33.0P65.5U
3@ Michigan State41-7W-16.5W55.5U
4vs California59-32W-20.5W59.25O
5@ Arizona31-24W-19.0L67.5U
7vs Oregon36-33W-3.0P67.5O
8vs Arizona State15-7W-26.5L59U
9@ Stanford42-33W-26.5L59.5O
10@ USC52-42W-3.5W76O
11vs Utah35-28W-9.5L54O
12@ Oregon State22-20W+2.5W63.5U
13vs Washington State24-21W+9.5W65.5U
14vs Oregon34-31W----
18vs Texas37-31W+3.8W63O
19@ Michigan13-34L+5.0L55.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-6-2
53.8%
O/U Record
7-8
46.7%
Straight Up
14-1
93.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-5
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off96thRed Zone Off51th3rd Down Off69thPass Def49thRush Def7thRed Zone Def16th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15696th+0.07619th
Red Zone+0.00451th+0.15516th
Third Down+0.27869th+0.13561th
No Garbage Time+0.16796th+0.05925th
First Half+0.28099th+0.08322th
Second Half+0.02559th+0.06728th
Early Downs+0.09794th+0.1016th
Passing Downs+0.22087th+0.03349th
Standard Downs+0.13096th+0.0967th
Goal to Go+0.11269th+0.5261th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 58.3%Rush 41.7%
Havoc/Game
11.9
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
15.7
Yards/Game
462.1
Pts/Drive
2.96
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
13.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 15 games — Washington vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWashingtonOpponents
Scoring
Points540372
Points / Game36.024.8
First Downs
Total349332
Rushing97124
Passing218168
Penalty3440
Rushing
Attempts411474
Yards1,7762,222
Yards / Carry4.34.7
Yards / Game118.4148.1
Touchdowns2825
Passing
Attempts574583
Completions376345
Completion %65.5%59.2%
Yards5,1553,879
Yards / Attempt9.06.7
Touchdowns3823
Interceptions1216
Passer Rating158.61122.60
Total Offense
Plays9851,057
Yards6,9316,101
Yards / Play7.05.8
Yards / Game462.1406.7
Punt Returns
Returns198
Yards18424
Average9.73.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3441
Yards703663
Average20.716.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4664
Yards1,8782,799
Average40.843.7
Interception Returns
Returns1612
Yards32181
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles1814
Lost84
Penalties
Penalties112100
Yards1,029891
Yards / Game68.659.4
Time of Possession
Per Game30:0829:50
Third Downs
Attempts172207
Conversions7680
Conversion %44.2%38.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2237
Conversions1415
Conversion %63.6%40.5%
Red Zone
Trips7354
Scores (TD + FG)6346
Score %86.3%85.2%
Touchdowns4937
TD %67.1%68.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2217
Made1813
Pct81.8%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6444
Made6441
Pct100.0%93.2%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →