Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference12-2#19 (+13.72)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

86· BOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
97· A+Big plays
Defense
37· DRating
34· DPer play
22· DConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
14· FRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
49· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.233
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.243
Defensive EPA/play
+0.021
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.4%
Def Success Rate
46.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.222
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.065
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.84

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.19
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.12
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#19
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#24
model 5 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#6
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
model 60 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
34th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
98th
Defensive havoc
21th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Washington2023OA +0.172 / +0.019similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3732Houston2018OA +0.075 / -0.078similar: run defense, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3643UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, run defense3634Western Kentucky2021OA +0.186 / -0.029similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3545Washington State2024OA +0.048 / -0.028similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, offensive EPA348

2025 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Lamar51-0W-27.5W63.5U
2@ Western Michigan33-30W+2.5W55.5O
3vs Washington State59-10W-44.0W65.5O
4@ Army45-38W-2.5W50.5O
5vs South Alabama36-22W-12.5W63.5U
7vs South Florida36-63L----
8vs UTSA55-17W-14.0W68.5O
9@ Charlotte54-20W----
10vs Navy31-17W-6.5W65.5U
12@ UAB53-24W-22.5W80.5U
13@ Rice56-24W-41.5L72.5O
14vs Temple52-25W-2.5L67U
15@ Tulane21-34L----
18@ San Diego State49-47W-7.3L54.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
9-5
64.3%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS9-4
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off99thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off95thPass Def75thRush Def21thRed Zone Def14th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.226100th+0.00841th
Red Zone+0.23894th+0.17314th
Third Down+0.40395th+0.07650th
No Garbage Time+0.24099th+0.00441th
First Half+0.277100th-0.02149th
Second Half+0.17193th+0.03932th
Early Downs+0.13198th-0.04360th
Passing Downs+0.32098th-0.10275th
Standard Downs+0.18999th+0.06421th
Goal to Go+0.15673th+0.12336th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 47.9%Rush 52.1%
Havoc/Game
11.4
Havoc Rate
15.7%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
512.4
Pts/Drive
3.84
3rd Down%
46.2%
3&Out%
11.3%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 14 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points631371
Points / Game45.126.5
First Downs
Total362283
Rushing137162
Passing199108
Penalty2613
Rushing
Attempts517608
Yards2,7223,020
Yards / Carry5.35.0
Yards / Game194.4215.7
Touchdowns4928
Passing
Attempts475388
Completions325218
Completion %68.4%56.2%
Yards4,4522,327
Yards / Attempt9.46.0
Touchdowns3516
Interceptions915
Passer Rating167.68112.44
Total Offense
Plays992996
Yards7,1745,347
Yards / Play7.25.4
Yards / Game512.4381.9
Punt Returns
Returns206
Yards7780
Average3.913.3
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns2544
Yards531804
Average21.218.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3257
Yards1,2962,336
Average40.541.0
Interception Returns
Returns159
Yards232142
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1522
Lost1013
Penalties
Penalties7890
Yards637784
Yards / Game45.556.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2331:37
Third Downs
Attempts171203
Conversions7986
Conversion %46.2%42.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3637
Conversions2623
Conversion %72.2%62.2%
Red Zone
Trips7951
Scores (TD + FG)7244
Score %91.1%86.3%
Touchdowns6233
TD %78.5%64.7%
Field Goals
Attempts1416
Made1214
Pct85.7%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7741
Made7741
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts76
Made43
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →