Fourth Down Data
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WKU

Western Kentucky

HilltoppersPass-Heavy
Conference USA9-5#9 (+8.93)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

93· AOverall
Offense
98· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
92· A-Big plays
Defense
39· DRating
35· DPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
21· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.186
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.224
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.6%
Def Success Rate
49.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.200
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.136
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.46

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.36
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.26
own return game
Return Defense
-0.29
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#9
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 17 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#45
model 36 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
model 63 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
33th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
35th
Offensive success rate
98th
Explosiveness
92th
Defensive havoc
63th
Points per drive
98th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1USC2025OA +0.145 / +0.017similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3882North Texas2025OA +0.233 / -0.035similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, passing offense3543Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate3414Washington2023OA +0.172 / +0.019similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, pass defense3385SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, rushing offense337

2021 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UT Martin59-21W----
2@ Army35-38L+3.5W54.5O
4vs Indiana31-33L+16.0W--
5@ Michigan State31-48L+10.5L64.25O
6vs UTSA46-52L-3.5L70.5O
7@ Old Dominion43-20W-12.5W67U
8@ Florida International34-19W-15.0P76.5U
9vs Charlotte45-13W-17.5W73U
10vs Middle Tennessee48-21W-14.8W68.5O
11@ Rice42-21W-18.5W62.5O
12vs Florida Atlantic52-17W-10.0W64.5O
13@ Marshall53-21W+1.0W74P
14@ UTSA41-49L----
16@ App State59-38W+2.5W67O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
8-3-1
72.7%
Straight Up
9-5
64.3%
Home ATS4-1
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS5-2
Underdog ATS4-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off98thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off71thPass Def63thRush Def18thRed Zone Def58th3rd Down Def21th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19899th+0.03429th
Red Zone+0.07070th-0.07558th
Third Down+0.19471th+0.22821th
No Garbage Time+0.21698th+0.04629th
First Half+0.20197th+0.09218th
Second Half+0.19598th-0.02655th
Early Downs+0.189100th+0.02832th
Passing Downs+0.25195th-0.04063th
Standard Downs+0.17798th+0.07118th
Goal to Go-0.21522th+0.13429th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 66.6%Rush 33.4%
Havoc/Game
15.4
Havoc Rate
19.6%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
17.9
Yards/Game
536.2
Pts/Drive
3.46
3rd Down%
46.6%
3&Out%
13.2%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 14 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern KentuckyOpponents
Scoring
Points619411
Points / Game44.229.4
First Downs
Total386330
Rushing94139
Passing264169
Penalty2822
Rushing
Attempts349564
Yards1,4352,358
Yards / Carry4.14.2
Yards / Game102.5168.4
Touchdowns1328
Passing
Attempts697519
Completions480316
Completion %68.9%60.9%
Yards6,0723,753
Yards / Attempt8.77.2
Touchdowns6323
Interceptions1221
Passer Rating168.43128.16
Total Offense
Plays1,0461,083
Yards7,5076,111
Yards / Play7.25.6
Yards / Game536.2436.5
Punt Returns
Returns1614
Yards142260
Average8.918.6
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns4033
Yards909613
Average22.718.6
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3455
Yards1,6342,301
Average48.141.8
Interception Returns
Returns2112
Yards213117
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles1322
Lost810
Penalties
Penalties94100
Yards753859
Yards / Game53.861.4
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4032:03
Third Downs
Attempts174211
Conversions8191
Conversion %46.6%43.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2241
Conversions1119
Conversion %50.0%46.3%
Red Zone
Trips7752
Scores (TD + FG)7043
Score %90.9%82.7%
Touchdowns5231
TD %67.5%59.6%
Field Goals
Attempts2916
Made2314
Pct79.3%87.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7352
Made7251
Pct98.6%98.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts61
Made20
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →