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USC
USC
TrojansBalancedBig Ten Conference9-4#21 (+13.23)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
84· BOverall
Offense
87· BRating
97· A+Per play
97· A+Consistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
78· BRating
28· DPer play
10· FConsistency
Situational
78· BRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.145
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.208
Defensive EPA/play
+0.040
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.6%
Def Success Rate
49.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.169
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.063
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.12
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.49
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.39
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
-0.19
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#21
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#20
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#18
market 3 higher
Recruiting Rank
#16
recruiting 5 spots higher
45 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where USC ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense90th
Opp-adjusted defense61th
Offensive EPA/play98th
Defensive EPA/play28th
Offensive success rate99th
Explosiveness96th
Defensive havoc58th
Points per drive93th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Washington2023OA +0.172 / +0.019similar: takeaway rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3942Western Kentucky2021OA +0.186 / -0.029similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3883Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, havoc rate3684UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: run defense, TD drive rate, rushing offense3665Louisville2017OA +0.148 / -0.016similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, havoc rate365
2025 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Missouri State | 73-13 | W | -36.0 | W | 59.5 | O |
| 2 | vs Georgia Southern | 59-20 | W | -29.5 | W | 61.5 | O |
| 3 | @ Purdue | 33-17 | W | -20.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 4 | vs Michigan State | 45-31 | W | -19.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 5 | @ Illinois | 32-34 | L | -7.0 | L | 61 | O |
| 7 | vs Michigan | 31-13 | W | -2.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 8 | @ Notre Dame | 24-34 | L | +10.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 10 | @ Nebraska | 21-17 | W | -4.5 | L | 59.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Northwestern | 38-17 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs Iowa | 26-21 | W | +3.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 13 | @ Oregon | 27-42 | L | +13.5 | L | 76.5 | U |
| 14 | vs UCLA | 29-10 | W | -21.5 | L | 58.5 | U |
| 19 | @ TCU | 27-30 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS1-5
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.212 | 99th | +0.023 | 35th |
| Red Zone | +0.142 | 79th | -0.126 | 76th |
| Third Down | +0.613 | 99th | +0.085 | 47th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.215 | 99th | +0.031 | 30th |
| First Half | +0.236 | 99th | +0.139 | 9th |
| Second Half | +0.183 | 95th | -0.089 | 79th |
| Early Downs | +0.134 | 99th | -0.007 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | +0.252 | 93th | +0.019 | 36th |
| Standard Downs | +0.194 | 99th | +0.025 | 37th |
| Goal to Go | -0.044 | 46th | -0.012 | 49th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 49.5%Rush 50.5%
Havoc/Game
12.2
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
17.2
Yards/Game
465.5
Pts/Drive
3.12
3rd Down%
51.3%
3&Out%
10.2%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 13 games — USC vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | USC | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 465 | 299 |
| Points / Game | 35.8 | 23.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 308 | 261 |
| Rushing | 102 | 110 |
| Passing | 172 | 123 |
| Penalty | 34 | 28 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 428 | 428 |
| Yards | 2,203 | 1,862 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| Yards / Game | 169.5 | 143.2 |
| Touchdowns | 29 | 15 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 420 | 394 |
| Completions | 280 | 259 |
| Completion % | 66.7% | 65.7% |
| Yards | 3,848 | 2,698 |
| Yards / Attempt | 9.2 | 6.8 |
| Touchdowns | 26 | 22 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 12 |
| Passer Rating | 159.29 | 135.59 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 848 | 822 |
| Yards | 6,051 | 4,560 |
| Yards / Play | 7.1 | 5.5 |
| Yards / Game | 465.5 | 350.8 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 6 |
| Yards | 89 | 103 |
| Average | 11.1 | 17.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 21 | 20 |
| Yards | 350 | 526 |
| Average | 16.7 | 26.3 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 24 | 51 |
| Yards | 1,010 | 2,175 |
| Average | 42.1 | 42.6 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 12 | 10 |
| Yards | 225 | 39 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 17 |
| Lost | 6 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 78 | 74 |
| Yards | 720 | 750 |
| Yards / Game | 55.4 | 57.7 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:01 | 29:59 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 152 | 156 |
| Conversions | 78 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 51.3% | 40.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 22 | 21 |
| Conversions | 14 | 10 |
| Conversion % | 63.6% | 47.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 62 | 42 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 56 | 32 |
| Score % | 90.3% | 76.2% |
| Touchdowns | 42 | 26 |
| TD % | 67.7% | 61.9% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 13 |
| Made | 21 | 10 |
| Pct | 84.0% | 76.9% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 50 | 36 |
| Made | 50 | 35 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 97.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 7 | 2 |
| Made | 5 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.