Fourth Down Data
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LOU

Louisville

CardinalsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#16 (+16.13)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

88· BOverall
Offense
96· ARating
88· BPer play
92· A-Consistency
96· ABig plays
Defense
60· CRating
39· DPer play
24· DConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
12· FRed-zone D
71· B3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.148
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.110
Defensive EPA/play
+0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.3%
Def Success Rate
47.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.086
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.019
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.51
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#16
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 10 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#40
model 24 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Louisville ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
44th
Offensive EPA/play
89th
Defensive EPA/play
39th
Offensive success rate
89th
Explosiveness
97th
Defensive havoc
59th
Points per drive
90th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, run defense4022UNLV2025OA +0.085 / -0.075similar: rushing offense, pass defense, offensive EPA4003Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3904Texas2019OA +0.093 / +0.011similar: run defense, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3865Texas State2025OA +0.157 / -0.060similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate383

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Purdue35-28W-6.5L60U
2@ North Carolina47-35W-11.5W65.5O
3vs Clemson21-47L+3.0L61O
4vs Kent State42-3W-42.0L56U
5vs Murray State55-10W-49.0L63.5O
6@ NC State25-39L-3.0L66U
7vs Boston College42-45L-20.0L60O
8@ Florida State31-28W+7.0W58O
9@ Wake Forest32-42L-2.5L66.5O
11vs Virginia38-21W-13.5W66U
12vs Syracuse56-10W-15.5W70.5U
13@ Kentucky44-17W-10.0W67.5U
18@ Mississippi State27-31L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS4-6
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off87thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off71thPass Def44thRush Def35thRed Zone Def12th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10389th+0.00244th
Red Zone-0.02047th+0.19512th
Third Down+0.10571th-0.06559th
No Garbage Time+0.11890th+0.01741th
First Half+0.11288th+0.00639th
Second Half+0.09484th-0.00246th
Early Downs+0.06583th+0.02229th
Passing Downs+0.14082th-0.00644th
Standard Downs+0.08587th+0.00635th
Goal to Go-0.32510th+0.12631th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.4%Rush 51.6%
Havoc/Game
13.8
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
16.9
Yards/Game
544.9
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
44.2%
3&Out%
18.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — Louisville vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLouisvilleOpponents
Scoring
Points495356
Points / Game38.127.4
First Downs
Total352266
Rushing157118
Passing168133
Penalty2715
Rushing
Attempts495514
Yards3,1862,124
Yards / Carry6.44.1
Yards / Game245.1163.4
Touchdowns3324
Passing
Attempts464385
Completions277224
Completion %59.7%58.2%
Yards3,8982,921
Yards / Attempt8.47.6
Touchdowns2918
Interceptions1013
Passer Rating146.58130.59
Total Offense
Plays959899
Yards7,0845,045
Yards / Play7.45.6
Yards / Game544.9388.1
Punt Returns
Returns2420
Yards123119
Average5.16.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2566
Yards4831,306
Average19.319.8
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts4466
Yards1,9142,979
Average43.545.1
Interception Returns
Returns1310
Yards230163
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles1722
Lost1110
Penalties
Penalties8274
Yards664719
Yards / Game51.155.3
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2529:35
Third Downs
Attempts181179
Conversions8074
Conversion %44.2%41.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3019
Conversions1911
Conversion %63.3%57.9%
Red Zone
Trips5939
Scores (TD + FG)5034
Score %84.7%87.2%
Touchdowns3629
TD %61.0%74.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2016
Made179
Pct85.0%56.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5946
Made5845
Pct98.3%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts51
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →