Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference8-5#27 (+10.78)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

80· BOverall
Offense
79· BRating
89· BPer play
82· BConsistency
89· BBig plays
Defense
69· CRating
33· DPer play
39· DConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
40· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.093
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.011
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.131
Defensive EPA/play
+0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.5%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.086
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.064
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.77
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.32
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#27
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#25
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#5
recruiting 22 spots higher
55 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
57th
Offensive EPA/play
90th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
46th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UCLA2021OA +0.125 / -0.079similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, run defense4292Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: run defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA4223Colorado State2017OA +0.040 / -0.109similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, pass defense4034NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, rushing offense4005Memphis2017OA +0.130 / +0.006similar: run defense, offensive success rate, rushing offense399

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Louisiana Tech45-14W+7.5W57U
2vs LSU38-45L+6.5L57.5O
3@ Rice48-13W-32.0W57.5O
4vs Oklahoma State36-30W-7.0L71.5U
6@ West Virginia42-31W-10.5W62O
7vs Oklahoma27-34L+11.5W77.5U
8vs Kansas50-48W-20.0L63.5O
9@ TCU27-37L+1.5L57O
11vs Kansas State27-24W-7.0L58U
12@ Iowa State21-23L+6.5W65U
13@ Baylor10-24L+4.0L58.5U
14vs Texas Tech49-24W-7.5W65O
19vs Utah38-10W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS3-3
Underdog ATS3-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off87thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off95thPass Def10thRush Def62thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def40th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.12592th+0.05826th
Red Zone+0.41696th+0.02044th
Third Down+0.34795th+0.07040th
No Garbage Time+0.12790th+0.04234th
First Half+0.10780th+0.02341th
Second Half+0.14293th+0.09215th
Early Downs+0.12592th+0.03236th
Passing Downs+0.16484th+0.21010th
Standard Downs+0.10587th-0.02262th
Goal to Go+0.19380th+0.05138th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.5%Rush 50.5%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
18.2
Yards/Game
465.8
Pts/Drive
2.75
3rd Down%
48.9%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points458357
Points / Game35.227.5
First Downs
Total325292
Rushing130100
Passing170164
Penalty2528
Rushing
Attempts480437
Yards2,2951,806
Yards / Carry4.84.1
Yards / Game176.5138.9
Touchdowns2613
Passing
Attempts470481
Completions306305
Completion %65.1%63.4%
Yards3,7613,803
Yards / Attempt8.07.9
Touchdowns3228
Interceptions1012
Passer Rating150.54144.04
Total Offense
Plays950918
Yards6,0565,609
Yards / Play6.46.1
Yards / Game465.8431.5
Punt Returns
Returns179
Yards15530
Average9.13.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1821
Yards450472
Average25.022.5
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts5757
Yards2,3182,369
Average40.741.6
Interception Returns
Returns1210
Yards100107
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles913
Lost47
Penalties
Penalties9564
Yards890554
Yards / Game68.542.6
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4729:13
Third Downs
Attempts184184
Conversions9072
Conversion %48.9%39.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1920
Conversions78
Conversion %36.8%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips5051
Scores (TD + FG)4645
Score %92.0%88.2%
Touchdowns3929
TD %78.0%56.9%
Field Goals
Attempts1827
Made1421
Pct77.8%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5740
Made5638
Pct98.2%95.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts22
Made22
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →