Fourth Down Data
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NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference9-4#22 (+12.47)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

83· BOverall
Offense
83· BRating
83· BPer play
66· CConsistency
78· BBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
48· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
81· B3rd down O
36· D3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.101
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.021
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.089
Defensive EPA/play
-0.011
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.5%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.099
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.103
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.48

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.41
expected pts/game
Kicking
-1.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.61
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.14
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#22
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#23
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#42
model 20 spots higher
6 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
83th
Defensive EPA/play
49th
Offensive success rate
68th
Explosiveness
79th
Defensive havoc
71th
Points per drive
77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Ohio State2018OA +0.108 / +0.044similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate4342Memphis2024OA +0.049 / -0.012similar: pass defense, run defense, passing offense4203Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, offensive success rate4144App State2022OA +0.021 / +0.003similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, pass defense4105SMU2019OA +0.086 / -0.055similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, offensive EPA410

2017 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Carolina28-35L-4.5W61.5O
2vs Marshall37-20W-21.0L55O
3vs Furman49-16W-37.0L--
4@ Florida State27-21W+10.5W51U
5vs Syracuse33-25W-14.0L61.5U
6vs Louisville39-25W+3.0W66U
7@ Pittsburgh35-17W-11.5W54.5U
9@ Notre Dame14-35L+7.0L60.5U
10vs Clemson31-38L+10.0W52O
11@ Boston College17-14W-3.0P54.5U
12@ Wake Forest24-30L+3.0L62.5U
13vs North Carolina33-21W-15.0L57U
18@ Arizona State52-31W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-6-1
45.5%
O/U Record
3-8
27.3%
Straight Up
9-3
75.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS3-2
Last 5 ATS
LWPLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off80thRed Zone Off41th3rd Down Off82thPass Def54thRush Def34thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.08485th-0.00847th
Red Zone-0.03641th-0.04057th
Third Down+0.16782th+0.04436th
No Garbage Time+0.08984th-0.01049th
First Half+0.20695th+0.10221th
Second Half-0.05334th-0.11978th
Early Downs+0.05279th-0.00838th
Passing Downs+0.11879th-0.03454th
Standard Downs+0.06580th+0.00734th
Goal to Go+0.00355th+0.14026th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.4%Rush 50.6%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
18.8
Yards/Game
451.8
Pts/Drive
2.48
3rd Down%
44.7%
3&Out%
19.4%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 13 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points419328
Points / Game32.225.2
First Downs
Total302254
Rushing11899
Passing162136
Penalty2219
Rushing
Attempts496435
Yards2,2931,703
Yards / Carry4.63.9
Yards / Game176.4131.0
Touchdowns3515
Passing
Attempts485463
Completions316261
Completion %65.2%56.4%
Yards3,5803,292
Yards / Attempt7.47.1
Touchdowns1722
Interceptions614
Passer Rating136.25125.73
Total Offense
Plays981898
Yards5,8734,995
Yards / Play6.05.6
Yards / Game451.8384.2
Punt Returns
Returns1618
Yards197237
Average12.313.2
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns3354
Yards7501,085
Average22.720.1
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5564
Yards2,3582,604
Average42.940.7
Interception Returns
Returns146
Yards202141
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles169
Lost77
Penalties
Penalties7877
Yards712639
Yards / Game54.849.2
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4527:15
Third Downs
Attempts188191
Conversions8480
Conversion %44.7%41.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2521
Conversions1410
Conversion %56.0%47.6%
Red Zone
Trips6044
Scores (TD + FG)4435
Score %73.3%79.5%
Touchdowns3624
TD %60.0%54.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2021
Made1016
Pct50.0%76.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5238
Made4936
Pct94.2%94.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts42
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →