Fourth Down Data
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OSU

Ohio State

BuckeyesBalanced
Big Ten Conference13-1#10 (+9.57)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

92· A-Overall
Offense
88· BRating
90· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
76· BBig plays
Defense
68· CRating
58· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
31· DRed-zone O
4· FRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
63· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.108
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.044
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.137
Defensive EPA/play
-0.025
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.1%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.163
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.069
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.80

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.64
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.39
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.89
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.52
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#10
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
AP 7 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#2
recruiting 8 spots higher
67 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Ohio State ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
89th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
91th
Defensive EPA/play
58th
Offensive success rate
93th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
84th
Points per drive
87th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1NC State2017OA +0.101 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate4342Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate3723UTSA2022OA +0.068 / -0.038similar: takeaway rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3694LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3675SMU2020OA +0.035 / -0.008similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, passing offense364

2018 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Oregon State77-31W-5.5L55.5U
2vs Rutgers52-3W-34.5W58U
3@ TCU40-28W-13.0L58.5O
4vs Tulane49-6W-37.5W66.5U
5@ Penn State27-26W-3.0L68.5U
6vs Indiana49-26W-27.5L63O
7vs Minnesota30-14W-29.5L60.5U
8@ Purdue20-49L-12.0L66O
10vs Nebraska36-31W-17.0L75.5U
11@ Michigan State26-6W-3.0W50U
12@ Maryland52-51W-13.5L61.5O
13vs Michigan62-39W+4.5W52.5O
14vs Northwestern45-24W-16.5W62.5O
19vs Washington28-23W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
6-7
46.2%
Straight Up
12-1
92.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-8
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off95thRush Off83thRed Zone Off31th3rd Down Off78thPass Def54thRush Def36thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def64th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.13192th+0.01246th
Red Zone-0.06131th+0.3125th
Third Down+0.19378th-0.02664th
No Garbage Time+0.13490th-0.01655th
First Half+0.14392th+0.00344th
Second Half+0.11989th+0.02242th
Early Downs+0.10091th+0.00341th
Passing Downs+0.24195th-0.00554th
Standard Downs+0.08483th+0.02336th
Goal to Go-0.10624th+0.3619th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.6%Rush 50.4%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
22.4%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
535.6
Pts/Drive
2.80
3rd Down%
46.6%
3&Out%
19.0%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 14 games — Ohio State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOhio StateOpponents
Scoring
Points593357
Points / Game42.425.5
First Downs
Total403283
Rushing136102
Passing231145
Penalty3636
Rushing
Attempts570490
Yards2,3982,215
Yards / Carry4.24.5
Yards / Game171.3158.2
Touchdowns2326
Passing
Attempts561489
Completions396272
Completion %70.6%55.6%
Yards5,1003,433
Yards / Attempt9.17.0
Touchdowns5118
Interceptions811
Passer Rating174.10122.24
Total Offense
Plays1,131979
Yards7,4985,648
Yards / Play6.65.8
Yards / Game535.6403.4
Punt Returns
Returns2713
Yards21643
Average8.03.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2633
Yards463492
Average17.814.9
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6287
Yards2,6523,422
Average42.839.3
Interception Returns
Returns118
Yards107211
Touchdowns12
Fumbles
Fumbles1724
Lost912
Penalties
Penalties11681
Yards1,055781
Yards / Game75.455.8
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5729:08
Third Downs
Attempts204205
Conversions9567
Conversion %46.6%32.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2119
Conversions149
Conversion %66.7%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips7042
Scores (TD + FG)5438
Score %77.1%90.5%
Touchdowns4329
TD %61.4%69.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1822
Made1314
Pct72.2%63.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7640
Made7639
Pct100.0%97.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts36
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →