Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference13-1#14 (+8.49)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

89· BOverall
Offense
96· ARating
91· A-Per play
97· A+Consistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
77· BRating
63· CPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
88· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.060
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.138
Defensive EPA/play
-0.037
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.2%
Def Success Rate
43.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.175
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.098
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.18
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#14
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
AP 11 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#4
market 10 higher
Recruiting Rank
#4
recruiting 10 spots higher
69 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
94th
Opp-adjusted defense
66th
Offensive EPA/play
92th
Defensive EPA/play
63th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
94th
Points per drive
97th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2020OA +0.144 / +0.007similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4142LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate4093Georgia2023OA +0.182 / +0.099similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, TD drive rate3884Texas A&M2020OA +0.039 / +0.018similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, turnover rate3755Ohio State2018OA +0.108 / +0.044similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, turnover rate373

2024 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Idaho24-14W-44.5L62.5U
2vs Boise State37-34W-18.5L61O
3@ Oregon State49-14W-16.5W51O
5@ UCLA34-13W-25.5L55U
6vs Michigan State31-10W----
7vs Ohio State32-31W+3.5W53O
8@ Purdue35-0W----
9vs Illinois38-9W-21.5W54.5U
10@ Michigan38-17W-15.0W45.5O
11vs Maryland39-18W-25.0L57.5U
12@ Wisconsin16-13W-14.0L52U
14vs Washington49-21W-18.0W50.5O
15vs Penn State45-37W-3.5W50.5O
19vs Ohio State21-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7
50.0%
O/U Record
7-7
50.0%
Straight Up
13-1
92.9%
Home ATS4-5
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
LLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off98thRush Off78thRed Zone Off76th3rd Down Off96thPass Def70thRush Def49thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def89th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14494th-0.03465th
Red Zone+0.13076th-0.07063th
Third Down+0.38396th-0.10889th
No Garbage Time+0.15095th-0.04063th
First Half+0.218100th-0.00746th
Second Half+0.06369th-0.06378th
Early Downs+0.05581th-0.02949th
Passing Downs+0.29998th-0.07370th
Standard Downs+0.07678th-0.00949th
Goal to Go-0.09331th+0.13022th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.0%Rush 52.0%
Havoc/Game
15.0
Havoc Rate
23.8%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
437.4
Pts/Drive
3.00
3rd Down%
48.6%
3&Out%
17.1%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 14 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points488272
Points / Game34.919.4
First Downs
Total323241
Rushing12797
Passing175121
Penalty2123
Rushing
Attempts499440
Yards2,2111,820
Yards / Carry4.44.1
Yards / Game157.9130.0
Touchdowns3016
Passing
Attempts460420
Completions335234
Completion %72.8%55.7%
Yards3,9132,603
Yards / Attempt8.56.2
Touchdowns3015
Interceptions612
Passer Rating163.19113.85
Total Offense
Plays959860
Yards6,1244,423
Yards / Play6.45.1
Yards / Game437.4315.9
Punt Returns
Returns204
Yards19556
Average9.814.0
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns1218
Yards322332
Average26.818.4
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts4667
Yards2,0662,877
Average44.942.9
Interception Returns
Returns126
Yards38134
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles1018
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties7477
Yards580651
Yards / Game41.446.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5129:08
Third Downs
Attempts179181
Conversions8761
Conversion %48.6%33.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2024
Conversions1311
Conversion %65.0%45.8%
Red Zone
Trips6342
Scores (TD + FG)5636
Score %88.9%85.7%
Touchdowns4622
TD %73.0%52.4%
Field Goals
Attempts2020
Made1616
Pct80.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts5628
Made5428
Pct96.4%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts74
Made42
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →