Fourth Down Data
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LSU

LSU

TigersBalanced
Southeastern Conference15-0#3 (+37.29)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
99· A+Per play
99· A+Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
61· CPer play
66· CConsistency
Situational
92· A-Red-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
58· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.304
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.088
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.318
Defensive EPA/play
-0.027
lower = better
Off Success Rate
56.0%
Def Success Rate
43.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.344
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.068
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.99

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.85
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.09
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#1
AP 2 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#6
model 3 spots higher
54 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where LSU ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
81th
Offensive EPA/play
100th
Defensive EPA/play
62th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia2023OA +0.182 / +0.099similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, TD drive rate4222Alabama2022OA +0.176 / +0.135similar: havoc rate, run defense, TD drive rate4223Oregon2024OA +0.060 / +0.016similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate4094Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3975Ohio State2022OA +0.221 / +0.040similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA396

2019 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Georgia Southern55-3W-5.0W67P
2@ Texas45-38W-6.5W57.5O
3vs Northwestern State65-14W-51.5L68O
4@ Vanderbilt66-38W-24.0W62.5O
6vs Utah State42-6W-27.0W72.5U
7vs Florida42-28W-14.0P55.5O
8@ Mississippi State36-13W-17.5W62U
9vs Auburn23-20W-11.5L59.5U
11@ Alabama46-41W+5.0W65O
12@ Ole Miss58-37W-22.0L67O
13vs Arkansas56-20W-41.5L68.5O
14vs Texas A&M50-7W-18.0W65U
15vs Georgia37-10W-7.0W57U
18vs Oklahoma63-28W----
20vs Clemson42-25W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4-1
66.7%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
13-0
100.0%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off83thRush Off100thRed Zone Off93th3rd Down Off58thPass Def91thRush Def12thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def84th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.232100th-0.02360th
Red Zone+0.26693th+0.09525th
Third Down+0.07558th-0.14684th
No Garbage Time+0.316100th-0.04068th
First Half+0.312100th-0.10381th
Second Half+0.14192th+0.06025th
Early Downs+0.305100th+0.1117th
Passing Downs+0.15783th-0.19191th
Standard Downs+0.260100th+0.08412th
Goal to Go+0.15677th-0.14265th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.5%Rush 47.5%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
22.3%
TO Margin
+0.7
Explosive/G
17.1
Yards/Game
568.4
Pts/Drive
3.99
3rd Down%
49.7%
3&Out%
10.5%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 15 games — LSU vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatLSUOpponents
Scoring
Points726328
Points / Game48.421.9
First Downs
Total418283
Rushing15187
Passing243158
Penalty2438
Rushing
Attempts513487
Yards2,5021,812
Yards / Carry4.93.7
Yards / Game166.8120.8
Touchdowns3219
Passing
Attempts567521
Completions426264
Completion %75.1%50.7%
Yards6,0243,341
Yards / Attempt10.66.4
Touchdowns6120
Interceptions717
Passer Rating197.41110.68
Total Offense
Plays1,0801,008
Yards8,5265,153
Yards / Play7.95.1
Yards / Game568.4343.5
Punt Returns
Returns219
Yards251117
Average12.013.0
Touchdowns21
Kickoff Returns
Returns1515
Yards292337
Average19.522.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts4791
Yards2,0133,958
Average42.843.5
Interception Returns
Returns177
Yards8782
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles129
Lost55
Penalties
Penalties9399
Yards936760
Yards / Game62.450.7
Time of Possession
Per Game30:2329:37
Third Downs
Attempts183213
Conversions9163
Conversion %49.7%29.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts931
Conversions615
Conversion %66.7%48.4%
Red Zone
Trips7540
Scores (TD + FG)7231
Score %96.0%77.5%
Touchdowns5926
TD %78.7%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts2716
Made2111
Pct77.8%68.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts9338
Made8937
Pct95.7%97.4%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts24
Made13
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →