Fourth Down Data
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ORE

Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference12-2#3 (+13.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
98· A+Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
83· BRating
70· BPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
89· BRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.268
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.089
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.346
Defensive EPA/play
-0.045
lower = better
Off Success Rate
57.0%
Def Success Rate
44.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
29.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.391
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.65
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#6
model 3 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#4
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 6 spots higher
56 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
87th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
70th
Offensive success rate
99th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
78th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Alabama2019OA +0.262 / +0.129similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense4222LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: offensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3973Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3794Alabama2020OA +0.144 / +0.007similar: TD drive rate, passing offense, offensive EPA3765Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA374

2023 Schedule & Results

14 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Portland State81-7W----
2@ Texas Tech38-30W-6.0W69U
3vs Hawai'i55-10W-38.0W68.5U
4vs Colorado42-6W-21.0W70U
5@ Stanford42-6W-27.0W61U
7@ Washington33-36L+3.0P67.5O
8vs Washington State38-24W-20.0L62P
9@ Utah35-6W-6.5W49U
10vs California63-19W-24.0W57.5O
11vs USC36-27W-15.0L73.5U
12@ Arizona State49-13W-23.5W54O
13vs Oregon State31-7W-9.5L65.5U
14@ Washington31-34L----
18vs Liberty45-6W-18.0W68.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-3-1
75.0%
O/U Record
3-9-1
25.0%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS4-1
Favorite ATS9-3
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off99thRush Off99thRed Zone Off90th3rd Down Off99thPass Def47thRush Def68thRed Zone Def82th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.28999th-0.02764th
Red Zone+0.24990th-0.15382th
Third Down+0.61999th+0.21438th
No Garbage Time+0.34999th-0.03266th
First Half+0.380100th-0.01862th
Second Half+0.18999th-0.03763th
Early Downs+0.20399th-0.11284th
Passing Downs+0.40699th+0.03847th
Standard Downs+0.24399th-0.06368th
Goal to Go+0.09665th+0.14333th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
15.1
Yards/Game
531.4
Pts/Drive
4.29
3rd Down%
51.0%
3&Out%
13.3%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 14 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points619231
Points / Game44.216.5
First Downs
Total372253
Rushing13984
Passing211140
Penalty2229
Rushing
Attempts437401
Yards2,5831,436
Yards / Carry5.93.6
Yards / Game184.5102.6
Touchdowns3310
Passing
Attempts514492
Completions397296
Completion %77.2%60.2%
Yards4,8573,022
Yards / Attempt9.46.1
Touchdowns4916
Interceptions512
Passer Rating186.13117.61
Total Offense
Plays951893
Yards7,4404,458
Yards / Play7.85.0
Yards / Game531.4318.4
Punt Returns
Returns217
Yards20196
Average9.613.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2027
Yards308437
Average15.416.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3260
Yards1,4832,620
Average46.343.7
Interception Returns
Returns125
Yards5818
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1014
Lost26
Penalties
Penalties9377
Yards848623
Yards / Game60.644.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:0328:58
Third Downs
Attempts155190
Conversions7968
Conversion %51.0%35.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2538
Conversions1918
Conversion %76.0%47.4%
Red Zone
Trips7442
Scores (TD + FG)6535
Score %87.8%83.3%
Touchdowns5623
TD %75.7%54.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1817
Made1215
Pct66.7%88.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts7522
Made7520
Pct100.0%90.9%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts85
Made52
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →