Fourth Down Data
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ALA

Alabama

Crimson TideBalanced
Southeastern Conference11-2#2 (+37.61)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
99· A+Rating
98· A+Per play
96· AConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
82· BPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
55· CRed-zone O
69· CRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.262
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.129
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.257
Defensive EPA/play
-0.107
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.3%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.364
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.004
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+2.36
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.48
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.42
own return game
Return Defense
+0.45
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#8
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#1
recruiting 1 spots higher
77 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Alabama ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
91th
Offensive EPA/play
99th
Defensive EPA/play
83th
Offensive success rate
97th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
81th
Points per drive
100th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2023OA +0.268 / +0.089similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense4252Notre Dame2025OA +0.212 / +0.144similar: rushing offense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate3963LSU2019OA +0.304 / +0.088similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3754Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3685Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, pass defense363

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Duke42-3W-8.5W62U
2vs New Mexico State62-10W-54.5L65O
3@ South Carolina47-23W-25.5L59.5O
4vs Southern Miss49-7W-36.5W63U
5vs Ole Miss59-31W-37.5L62.5O
7@ Texas A&M47-28W-17.0W61O
8vs Tennessee35-13W-35.0L62U
9vs Arkansas48-7W-32.0W56U
11vs LSU41-46L-5.0L65O
12@ Mississippi State38-7W-21.0W61.5U
13vs Western Carolina66-3W-58.5W61.5O
14@ Auburn45-48L-4.0L50O
19vs Michigan35-16W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
6-6
50.0%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-4
Away ATS2-2
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off97thRush Off96thRed Zone Off55th3rd Down Off87thPass Def85thRush Def70thRed Zone Def70th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.19599th-0.07177th
Red Zone-0.00755th-0.09270th
Third Down+0.20687th-0.15587th
No Garbage Time+0.23499th-0.12790th
First Half+0.20296th-0.13787th
Second Half+0.18899th+0.00157th
Early Downs+0.13293th-0.01760th
Passing Downs+0.30997th-0.12285th
Standard Downs+0.14896th-0.04470th
Goal to Go-0.3938th-0.40891th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.2%Rush 51.8%
Havoc/Game
14.8
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+1.4
Explosive/G
13.1
Yards/Game
510.8
Pts/Drive
4.00
3rd Down%
52.3%
3&Out%
15.3%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Alabama vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatAlabamaOpponents
Scoring
Points614242
Points / Game47.218.6
First Downs
Total318247
Rushing12695
Passing168121
Penalty2431
Rushing
Attempts436467
Yards2,1911,783
Yards / Carry5.03.8
Yards / Game168.5137.2
Touchdowns279
Passing
Attempts406410
Completions287230
Completion %70.7%56.1%
Yards4,4492,434
Yards / Attempt11.05.9
Touchdowns4915
Interceptions617
Passer Rating199.61109.75
Total Offense
Plays842877
Yards6,6404,217
Yards / Play7.94.8
Yards / Game510.8324.4
Punt Returns
Returns2211
Yards531101
Average24.19.2
Touchdowns30
Kickoff Returns
Returns3028
Yards637470
Average21.216.8
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts3369
Yards1,3172,684
Average39.938.9
Interception Returns
Returns176
Yards245220
Touchdowns22
Fumbles
Fumbles919
Lost411
Penalties
Penalties9575
Yards855628
Yards / Game65.848.3
Time of Possession
Per Game29:6030:00
Third Downs
Attempts153185
Conversions8066
Conversion %52.3%35.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1919
Conversions137
Conversion %68.4%36.8%
Red Zone
Trips6232
Scores (TD + FG)5227
Score %83.9%84.4%
Touchdowns4318
TD %69.4%56.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1820
Made1220
Pct66.7%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts8323
Made8022
Pct96.4%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts03
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →