Fourth Down Data
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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced
FBS Independents10-2#4 (+27.67)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

97· A+Overall
Offense
98· A+Rating
96· APer play
98· A+Consistency
98· A+Big plays
Defense
93· ARating
88· BPer play
73· BConsistency
Situational
69· CRed-zone O
43· CRed-zone D
98· A+3rd down O
58· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.212
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.144
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.207
Defensive EPA/play
-0.120
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.3%
Def Success Rate
43.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
28.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.327
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.013
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.41

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.02
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.83
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.28
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#4
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#10
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#2
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#8
model 4 spots higher
65 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
97th
Defensive EPA/play
89th
Offensive success rate
96th
Explosiveness
99th
Defensive havoc
93th
Points per drive
99th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, havoc rate4112Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate4103Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, run defense4074Louisiana Tech2026OA +0.085 / +0.038similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4025Coastal Carolina2020OA +0.073 / +0.031similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate401

2025 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Miami24-27L-3.0L50.5O
3vs Texas A&M40-41L-6.5L50.5O
4vs Purdue56-30W-24.5W51.5O
5@ Arkansas56-13W-4.5W64O
6vs Boise State28-7W-20.5W48.5U
7vs NC State36-7W-16.5W43.5U
8vs USC34-24W-10.5L60U
10@ Boston College25-10W-13.5W39.5U
11vs Navy49-10W-28.0W55.5O
12@ Pittsburgh37-15W-12.5W54U
13vs Syracuse70-7W-65.5L71.5O
14@ Stanford49-20W-32.5L49.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
10-2
83.3%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS7-5
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WWWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off100thRush Off56thRed Zone Off70th3rd Down Off99thPass Def73thRush Def85thRed Zone Def44th3rd Down Def59th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17895th-0.10186th
Red Zone+0.09370th+0.01844th
Third Down+0.61299th+0.02959th
No Garbage Time+0.18996th-0.12590th
First Half+0.20497th-0.07171th
Second Half+0.15190th-0.13390th
Early Downs+0.05577th-0.12487th
Passing Downs+0.492100th-0.09273th
Standard Downs+0.02056th-0.10685th
Goal to Go-0.08337th+0.3893th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.0%Rush 57.0%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
+1.1
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
458.5
Pts/Drive
3.41
3rd Down%
48.1%
3&Out%
13.1%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 12 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNotre DameOpponents
Scoring
Points504211
Points / Game42.017.6
First Downs
Total272222
Rushing10977
Passing137113
Penalty2632
Rushing
Attempts429402
Yards2,4411,201
Yards / Carry5.73.0
Yards / Game203.4100.1
Touchdowns388
Passing
Attempts323413
Completions217230
Completion %67.2%55.7%
Yards3,0612,561
Yards / Attempt9.56.2
Touchdowns2514
Interceptions621
Passer Rating168.61108.80
Total Offense
Plays752815
Yards5,5023,762
Yards / Play7.34.6
Yards / Game458.5313.5
Punt Returns
Returns182
Yards21211
Average11.85.5
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns2115
Yards531324
Average25.321.6
Touchdowns20
Punting
Punts2552
Yards1,1142,204
Average44.642.4
Interception Returns
Returns216
Yards27092
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles129
Lost42
Penalties
Penalties6679
Yards622689
Yards / Game51.857.4
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1830:42
Third Downs
Attempts135176
Conversions6562
Conversion %48.1%35.2%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3133
Conversions1715
Conversion %54.8%45.5%
Red Zone
Trips5525
Scores (TD + FG)4221
Score %76.4%84.0%
Touchdowns3914
TD %70.9%56.0%
Field Goals
Attempts920
Made517
Pct55.6%85.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6720
Made6320
Pct94.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts32
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →