Fourth Down Data
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Oregon

DucksBalanced
Big Ten Conference13-2#5 (+27.10)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

96· AOverall
Offense
95· ARating
83· BPer play
84· BConsistency
65· CBig plays
Defense
95· ARating
92· A-Per play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
59· CRed-zone O
24· DRed-zone D
89· B3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.146
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.155
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.098
Defensive EPA/play
-0.140
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.7%
Def Success Rate
41.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.238
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.167
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.20

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.16
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.61
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#5
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#4
AP 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#3
market 2 higher
Recruiting Rank
#6
model 1 spots higher
68 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Oregon ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
90th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
84th
Defensive EPA/play
93th
Offensive success rate
81th
Explosiveness
65th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
96th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, passing offense4312Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate4303Miami2025OA +0.143 / +0.197similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, rushing offense4114Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: takeaway rate, offensive success rate, pass defense4115Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: turnover rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate407

2025 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Montana State59-13W-45.5W64.5O
2vs Oklahoma State69-3W-52.5W68.5O
3@ Northwestern34-14W-27.0L48.5U
4vs Oregon State41-7W-34.0P52.5U
5@ Penn State30-24W+3.5W53O
7vs Indiana20-30L-3.5L46.5O
8@ Rutgers56-10W-17.5W61.5O
9vs Wisconsin21-7W-31.5L44.5U
11@ Iowa18-16W-25.0W44.5O
12vs Minnesota42-13W----
13vs USC42-27W-13.5W76.5U
14@ Washington26-14W-15.5L41U
17vs James Madison51-34W-20.5L45.5O
19@ Texas Tech23-0W+3.0L49.5O
20@ Indiana22-56L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-7-1
50.0%
O/U Record
8-7
53.3%
Straight Up
13-2
86.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS3-4
Favorite ATS6-6
Underdog ATS1-1
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off84thRed Zone Off59th3rd Down Off90thPass Def81thRush Def73thRed Zone Def24th3rd Down Def73th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09183th-0.08981th
Red Zone+0.03459th+0.13524th
Third Down+0.33490th-0.05473th
No Garbage Time+0.09883th-0.14592th
First Half+0.13388th-0.14790th
Second Half+0.04070th-0.03258th
Early Downs+0.06781th-0.15395th
Passing Downs+0.07271th-0.12681th
Standard Downs+0.10084th-0.06773th
Goal to Go-0.00654th+0.23716th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.2%Rush 55.8%
Havoc/Game
13.7
Havoc Rate
21.6%
TO Margin
+0.4
Explosive/G
12.3
Yards/Game
452.2
Pts/Drive
3.20
3rd Down%
46.8%
3&Out%
9.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 15 games — Oregon vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregonOpponents
Scoring
Points554268
Points / Game36.917.9
First Downs
Total332233
Rushing143102
Passing165110
Penalty2421
Rushing
Attempts551508
Yards2,9791,736
Yards / Carry5.43.4
Yards / Game198.6115.7
Touchdowns3513
Passing
Attempts437424
Completions313226
Completion %71.6%53.3%
Yards3,8042,369
Yards / Attempt8.75.6
Touchdowns3119
Interceptions1015
Passer Rating163.58107.95
Total Offense
Plays988932
Yards6,7834,105
Yards / Play6.94.4
Yards / Game452.2273.7
Punt Returns
Returns296
Yards35027
Average12.14.5
Touchdowns20
Kickoff Returns
Returns1020
Yards202401
Average20.220.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts3679
Yards1,4703,430
Average40.843.4
Interception Returns
Returns1510
Yards156111
Touchdowns31
Fumbles
Fumbles1620
Lost56
Penalties
Penalties7685
Yards746622
Yards / Game49.741.5
Time of Possession
Per Game30:4929:11
Third Downs
Attempts186218
Conversions8783
Conversion %46.8%38.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3236
Conversions1823
Conversion %56.3%63.9%
Red Zone
Trips6236
Scores (TD + FG)5332
Score %85.5%88.9%
Touchdowns4126
TD %66.1%72.2%
Field Goals
Attempts2516
Made1913
Pct76.0%81.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6729
Made6729
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts44
Made11
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →