Notre Dame Fighting Irish Football Analytics

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Notre Dame

Fighting IrishBalanced

FBS Independents12-1#3 (+11.85)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall

Offense

88· BRating

80· BPer play

64· CConsistency

84· BBig plays

Defense

96· ARating

89· BPer play

85· BConsistency

Situational

62· CRed-zone O

58· CRed-zone D

87· B3rd down O

62· C3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.118

Opp-Adj Defense

+0.129

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.079

Defensive EPA/play

-0.131

lower = better

Off Success Rate

47.8%

Def Success Rate

42.3%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

25.6%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

21.3%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.210

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

-0.119

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

2.62

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

+0.84

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.34

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+0.69

vs opponent kicks

Returns

-0.05

own return game

Return Defense

-0.14

vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank

#3

opponent-adjusted strength

AP Poll

#5

model 2 spots higher

Market (Vegas)

—

unavailable

Recruiting Rank

#9

model 6 spots higher

47 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Notre Dame ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

92th

Opp-adjusted defense

89th

Offensive EPA/play

80th

Defensive EPA/play

90th

Offensive success rate

65th

Explosiveness

85th

Defensive havoc

67th

Points per drive

81th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2025OA +0.146 / +0.155similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate430 2Minnesota2021OA +0.109 / +0.102similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate397 3Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: rushing offense, pass defense, takeaway rate393 4Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate372 5Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA368

2018 Schedule & Results

13 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs Michigan	24-17	W	+10.5	L	58	U
2	vs Ball State	24-16	W	-34.0	L	60.5	U
3	vs Vanderbilt	22-17	W	-14.0	L	51.5	U
4	@ Wake Forest	56-27	W	-6.0	W	59.5	O
5	vs Stanford	38-17	W	-4.5	W	52.5	O
6	@ Virginia Tech	45-23	W	-6.5	W	55.5	O
7	vs Pittsburgh	19-14	W	-21.0	L	56	U
9	@ Navy	44-22	W	-21.5	W	55.5	O
10	@ Northwestern	31-21	W	-10.0	P	49.5	O
11	vs Florida State	42-13	W	-16.5	W	49.5	O
12	vs Syracuse	36-3	W	-10.0	W	64.5	U
13	@ USC	24-17	W	-12.5	L	54	U
18	@ Clemson	3-30	L	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

6-5-1

54.5%

O/U Record

6-6

50.0%

Straight Up

11-1

91.7%

Home ATS3-3

Away ATS3-2

Favorite ATS6-4

Underdog ATS0-1

Last 5 ATS

WPWWL

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	+0.064	76th	-0.081	79th
Red Zone	+0.062	62th	-0.018	58th
Third Down	+0.263	88th	-0.023	62th
No Garbage Time	+0.069	78th	-0.110	85th
First Half	+0.035	62th	-0.110	77th
Second Half	+0.097	83th	-0.050	71th
Early Downs	-0.007	52th	-0.069	73th
Passing Downs	+0.134	80th	-0.126	80th
Standard Downs	+0.026	61th	-0.054	68th
Goal to Go	-0.122	22th	-0.205	84th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.8%Rush 56.2%

Havoc/Game

15.5

Havoc Rate

20.5%

TO Margin

+0.3

Explosive/G

17.2

Yards/Game

440.1

Pts/Drive

2.62

3rd Down%

43.0%

3&Out%

14.4%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 13 games — Notre Dame vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Notre Dame	Opponents
Scoring
Points	408	237
Points / Game	31.4	18.2
First Downs
Total	304	259
Rushing	127	95
Passing	156	141
Penalty	21	23
Rushing
Attempts	536	472
Yards	2,374	1,813
Yards / Carry	4.4	3.8
Yards / Game	182.6	139.5
Touchdowns	27	16
Passing
Attempts	418	485
Completions	268	276
Completion %	64.1%	56.9%
Yards	3,347	2,703
Yards / Attempt	8.0	5.6
Touchdowns	23	10
Interceptions	13	12
Passer Rating	143.31	105.58
Total Offense
Plays	954	957
Yards	5,721	4,516
Yards / Play	6.0	4.7
Yards / Game	440.1	347.4
Punt Returns
Returns	20	18
Yards	196	149
Average	9.8	8.3
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	13	33
Yards	276	762
Average	21.2	23.1
Touchdowns	0	2
Punting
Punts	54	69
Yards	2,367	2,856
Average	43.8	41.4
Interception Returns
Returns	12	13
Yards	159	132
Touchdowns	0	0
Fumbles
Fumbles	10	16
Lost	4	9
Penalties
Penalties	67	65
Yards	596	548
Yards / Game	45.8	42.2
Time of Possession
Per Game	29:04	30:56
Third Downs
Attempts	193	211
Conversions	83	82
Conversion %	43.0%	38.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	25	25
Conversions	16	13
Conversion %	64.0%	52.0%
Red Zone
Trips	52	36
Scores (TD + FG)	45	27
Score %	86.5%	75.0%
Touchdowns	32	19
TD %	61.5%	52.8%
Field Goals
Attempts	22	25
Made	18	14
Pct	81.8%	56.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	49	27
Made	46	25
Pct	93.9%	92.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	2	1
Made	0	1

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →