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MICH
Michigan
WolverinesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference12-2#2 (+15.25)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
98· A+Overall
Offense
95· ARating
89· BPer play
68· CConsistency
84· BBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
79· BPer play
88· BConsistency
Situational
49· CRed-zone O
81· BRed-zone D
73· B3rd down O
80· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.126
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.077
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.101
Defensive EPA/play
-0.073
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.4%
Def Success Rate
42.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.174
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.072
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.91
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+4.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.83
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.37
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.60
own return game
Return Defense
+1.30
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
model 1 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
#23
model 21 higher
Recruiting Rank
#11
model 9 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense90th
Opp-adjusted defense84th
Offensive EPA/play89th
Defensive EPA/play80th
Offensive success rate69th
Explosiveness85th
Defensive havoc57th
Points per drive91th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4432Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, defensive EPA3983Alabama2022OA +0.176 / +0.135similar: defensive success rate, takeaway rate, offensive EPA3974Kansas State2023OA +0.110 / +0.053similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3755Notre Dame2018OA +0.118 / +0.129similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive success rate372
2021 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Michigan | 47-14 | W | -17.0 | W | 67 | U |
| 2 | vs Washington | 31-10 | W | -5.5 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Northern Illinois | 63-10 | W | -27.5 | W | 54.25 | O |
| 4 | vs Rutgers | 20-13 | W | -14.5 | L | - | - |
| 5 | @ Wisconsin | 38-17 | W | +2.0 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Nebraska | 32-29 | W | -3.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 8 | vs Northwestern | 33-7 | W | -23.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 9 | @ Michigan State | 33-37 | L | -4.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 10 | vs Indiana | 29-7 | W | -19.0 | W | 50.5 | U |
| 11 | @ Penn State | 21-17 | W | +0.8 | W | 48.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Maryland | 59-18 | W | -15.0 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Ohio State | 42-27 | W | +8.0 | W | 64.5 | O |
| 14 | @ Iowa | 42-3 | W | -10.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 18 | vs Georgia | 11-34 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
10-4
71.4%
O/U Record
7-5-1
58.3%
Straight Up
12-2
85.7%
Home ATS6-2
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS3-1
Last 5 ATS
WWWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.094 | 88th | -0.074 | 79th |
| Red Zone | -0.040 | 49th | -0.183 | 82th |
| Third Down | +0.204 | 74th | -0.115 | 81th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.091 | 86th | -0.084 | 81th |
| First Half | +0.079 | 77th | -0.100 | 82th |
| Second Half | +0.110 | 91th | -0.049 | 62th |
| Early Downs | +0.111 | 92th | -0.032 | 59th |
| Passing Downs | +0.111 | 83th | -0.139 | 80th |
| Standard Downs | +0.086 | 80th | -0.037 | 61th |
| Goal to Go | -0.165 | 31th | -0.211 | 73th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 40.7%Rush 59.3%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
15.6
Yards/Game
443.1
Pts/Drive
2.91
3rd Down%
46.0%
3&Out%
16.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 14 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 501 | 243 |
| Points / Game | 35.8 | 17.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 306 | 239 |
| Rushing | 164 | 96 |
| Passing | 121 | 127 |
| Penalty | 21 | 16 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 575 | 484 |
| Yards | 3,001 | 1,770 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| Yards / Game | 214.4 | 126.4 |
| Touchdowns | 39 | 11 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 395 | 455 |
| Completions | 248 | 258 |
| Completion % | 62.8% | 56.7% |
| Yards | 3,202 | 2,862 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.1 | 6.3 |
| Touchdowns | 21 | 17 |
| Interceptions | 9 | 8 |
| Passer Rating | 143.87 | 118.35 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 970 | 939 |
| Yards | 6,203 | 4,632 |
| Yards / Play | 6.4 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 443.1 | 330.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 36 | 9 |
| Yards | 364 | 35 |
| Average | 10.1 | 3.9 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 14 |
| Yards | 489 | 170 |
| Average | 18.8 | 12.1 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 77 |
| Yards | 2,085 | 3,396 |
| Average | 46.3 | 44.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 8 | 9 |
| Yards | 101 | 61 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 21 |
| Lost | 5 | 8 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 73 |
| Yards | 581 | 649 |
| Yards / Game | 41.5 | 46.4 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:22 | 28:38 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 189 | 217 |
| Conversions | 87 | 75 |
| Conversion % | 46.0% | 34.6% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 32 |
| Conversions | 14 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 51.9% | 50.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 67 | 35 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 60 | 27 |
| Score % | 89.6% | 77.1% |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 16 |
| TD % | 61.2% | 45.7% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 21 |
| Made | 23 | 14 |
| Pct | 92.0% | 66.7% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 56 | 23 |
| Made | 56 | 23 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 6 | 5 |
| Made | 2 | 5 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.