Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
UGA

Georgia

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference13-2#2 (+31.00)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
97· A+Rating
87· BPer play
80· BConsistency
81· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
86· BPer play
87· BConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
70· B3rd down D
How grades work →2017 is the earliest season the model grades — first-year numbers run a touch noisier than later seasons.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.162
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.179
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.109
Defensive EPA/play
-0.164
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.4%
Def Success Rate
41.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.273
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.029
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.51
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.65
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#2
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#2
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#5
model 3 spots higher
57 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia ranks among all FBS teams in 2017 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
97th
Opp-adjusted defense
94th
Offensive EPA/play
88th
Defensive EPA/play
87th
Offensive success rate
83th
Explosiveness
82th
Defensive havoc
68th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2022OA +0.201 / +0.122similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4812Michigan2021OA +0.126 / +0.077similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA4433Ohio State2025OA +0.173 / +0.241similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, takeaway rate4274Penn State2024OA +0.078 / +0.056similar: run defense, defensive EPA, TD drive rate4145Tulane2024OA +0.022 / +0.033similar: passing offense, havoc rate, offensive success rate413

2017 Schedule & Results

15 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs App State31-10W+3.5W45.5O
2@ Notre Dame20-19W+5.5W56.5U
3vs Samford42-14W-33.5L--
4vs Mississippi State31-3W-2.5W50U
5@ Tennessee41-0W-10.0W47U
6@ Vanderbilt45-14W-17.0W40.5O
7vs Missouri53-28W-28.5L58.5O
9@ Florida42-7W-12.5W43.5O
10vs South Carolina24-10W-23.5L45U
11@ Auburn17-40L-2.5L48O
12vs Kentucky42-13W-23.5W51O
13@ Georgia Tech38-7W-11.5W51U
14@ Auburn28-7W-2.0W48U
18@ Oklahoma54-48W----
19vs Alabama23-26L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
11-2
84.6%
Home ATS3-3
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS7-4
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
LLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off80thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off96thPass Def91thRush Def80thRed Zone Def68th3rd Down Def71th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07080th-0.15186th
Red Zone+0.22991th-0.09368th
Third Down+0.31696th-0.15571th
No Garbage Time+0.10588th-0.16889th
First Half+0.10385th-0.12274th
Second Half+0.03673th-0.18491th
Early Downs+0.05881th-0.07267th
Passing Downs+0.08271th-0.20191th
Standard Downs+0.06580th-0.12180th
Goal to Go+0.11472th+0.08835th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.3%Rush 68.7%
Havoc/Game
12.9
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.6
Yards/Game
435.3
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
45.6%
3&Out%
19.1%

Team Statistics

2017 season totals across 15 games — Georgia vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgiaOpponents
Scoring
Points531246
Points / Game35.416.4
First Downs
Total306234
Rushing173108
Passing112103
Penalty2123
Rushing
Attempts670506
Yards3,8761,890
Yards / Carry5.83.7
Yards / Game258.4126.0
Touchdowns428
Passing
Attempts305437
Completions186244
Completion %61.0%55.8%
Yards2,6532,534
Yards / Attempt8.75.8
Touchdowns2419
Interceptions912
Passer Rating154.12113.40
Total Offense
Plays975943
Yards6,5294,424
Yards / Play6.74.7
Yards / Game435.3294.9
Punt Returns
Returns2817
Yards283101
Average10.15.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2629
Yards612566
Average23.519.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6295
Yards2,7634,106
Average44.643.2
Interception Returns
Returns129
Yards17382
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1615
Lost78
Penalties
Penalties9578
Yards835595
Yards / Game55.739.7
Time of Possession
Per Game32:0727:53
Third Downs
Attempts195216
Conversions8971
Conversion %45.6%32.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1217
Conversions75
Conversion %58.3%29.4%
Red Zone
Trips5540
Scores (TD + FG)5331
Score %96.4%77.5%
Touchdowns3919
TD %70.9%47.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2423
Made2117
Pct87.5%73.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts6427
Made6427
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts20
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →