← All Teams
MICH
Michigan
WolverinesRun-HeavyBig Ten Conference13-1#3 (+14.71)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
98· A+Overall
Offense
94· ARating
89· BPer play
93· AConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
87· BPer play
78· BConsistency
Situational
70· BRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
56· C3rd down O
65· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.201
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.122
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.136
Defensive EPA/play
-0.132
lower = better
Off Success Rate
52.2%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.268
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.120
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.26
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.24
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.64
own return game
Return Defense
+0.26
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
#3
model & AP agree
Market (Vegas)
#4
model 1 higher
Recruiting Rank
#9
model 6 spots higher
52 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense96th
Opp-adjusted defense90th
Offensive EPA/play90th
Defensive EPA/play88th
Offensive success rate94th
Explosiveness75th
Defensive havoc60th
Points per drive95th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Georgia2017OA +0.162 / +0.179similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA4812Georgia2022OA +0.185 / +0.203similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4103Georgia2021OA +0.166 / +0.333similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate4004Iowa State2020OA +0.039 / +0.038similar: passing offense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3855Penn State2023OA +0.103 / +0.197similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, TD drive rate374
2022 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Colorado State | 51-7 | W | -30.5 | W | 61.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Hawai'i | 56-10 | W | -52.0 | L | 67 | U |
| 3 | vs UConn | 59-0 | W | -47.5 | W | 60 | U |
| 4 | vs Maryland | 34-27 | W | -17.0 | L | 64.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Iowa | 27-14 | W | -11.0 | W | 42 | U |
| 6 | @ Indiana | 31-10 | W | -22.5 | L | 57.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Penn State | 41-17 | W | -7.0 | W | 51.5 | O |
| 9 | vs Michigan State | 29-7 | W | -23.0 | L | 55 | U |
| 10 | @ Rutgers | 52-17 | W | -26.5 | W | 45 | O |
| 11 | vs Nebraska | 34-3 | W | -29.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 12 | vs Illinois | 19-17 | W | -18.0 | L | 42 | U |
| 13 | @ Ohio State | 45-23 | W | +7.5 | W | 57 | O |
| 14 | vs Purdue | 43-22 | W | -17.0 | W | 52 | O |
| 18 | vs TCU | 45-51 | L | -7.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
8-6
57.1%
O/U Record
5-9
35.7%
Straight Up
13-1
92.9%
Home ATS5-5
Away ATS3-1
Favorite ATS7-6
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.131 | 91th | -0.128 | 90th |
| Red Zone | +0.089 | 70th | -0.249 | 89th |
| Third Down | +0.107 | 57th | -0.017 | 66th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.128 | 89th | -0.136 | 90th |
| First Half | +0.042 | 61th | -0.101 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.225 | 98th | -0.154 | 92th |
| Early Downs | +0.154 | 98th | -0.062 | 67th |
| Passing Downs | +0.024 | 54th | -0.194 | 89th |
| Standard Downs | +0.172 | 98th | -0.089 | 73th |
| Goal to Go | -0.079 | 42th | -0.095 | 57th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 38.1%Rush 61.9%
Havoc/Game
12.4
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
14.9
Yards/Game
458.8
Pts/Drive
3.26
3rd Down%
45.2%
3&Out%
16.3%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 14 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 566 | 225 |
| Points / Game | 40.4 | 16.1 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 326 | 216 |
| Rushing | 177 | 78 |
| Passing | 130 | 124 |
| Penalty | 19 | 14 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 600 | 421 |
| Yards | 3,345 | 1,371 |
| Yards / Carry | 5.6 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 238.9 | 97.9 |
| Touchdowns | 41 | 10 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 370 | 458 |
| Completions | 238 | 256 |
| Completion % | 64.3% | 55.9% |
| Yards | 3,078 | 2,719 |
| Yards / Attempt | 8.3 | 5.9 |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 11 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 152.37 | 107.58 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 970 | 879 |
| Yards | 6,423 | 4,090 |
| Yards / Play | 6.6 | 4.7 |
| Yards / Game | 458.8 | 292.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 33 | 8 |
| Yards | 281 | 83 |
| Average | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 25 |
| Yards | 401 | 440 |
| Average | 20.1 | 17.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 45 | 78 |
| Yards | 1,859 | 3,287 |
| Average | 41.3 | 42.1 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 6 |
| Yards | 168 | 70 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 3 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 12 |
| Lost | 4 | 4 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 58 | 62 |
| Yards | 448 | 628 |
| Yards / Game | 32.0 | 44.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 33:48 | 26:12 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 186 | 198 |
| Conversions | 84 | 67 |
| Conversion % | 45.2% | 33.8% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 21 | 28 |
| Conversions | 17 | 9 |
| Conversion % | 81.0% | 32.1% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 71 | 34 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 65 | 28 |
| Score % | 91.5% | 82.4% |
| Touchdowns | 47 | 15 |
| TD % | 66.2% | 44.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 18 |
| Made | 29 | 17 |
| Pct | 82.9% | 94.4% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 63 | 22 |
| Made | 63 | 22 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 5 | 3 |
| Made | 4 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.